| Since 2021,China has entered the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,and high-quality development has become the main theme of market development.As the main direction of strategic emerging industries in China’s "14th Five-Year Plan",the biopharmaceutical industry has become an important support point for promoting the construction of a healthy China,based on which the domestic pharmaceutical industry adheres to the innovationdriven strategy.The innovation development strategy is inseparable from the construction of the intellectual property market,of which patents,as an important carrier of technical information,are of great importance to their value assessment.However,due to the asymmetry of patent information dissemination and the unpredictability of future product returns,patent value valuation has become a difficult point in the field of intangible asset valuation.At present,there are still few case studies in the patent value evaluation of innovative drugs,and the research perspective in the literature needs to be improved.This paper first analyzes the difficulties of patent value assessment of innovative drugs and the applicability of evaluation methods,then discusses the selection of patent value evaluation methods from the perspective of the life cycle of innovative drugs,and finally takes Bei Gene’s marketed innovative drug "BRUKINSA" as an example to design a patent value evaluation scheme,the patent value behind the innovative drug is divided into two parts,one is the value of the patent group for new indications that are not on the market and is still in the research and development stage,and the other part is the patent value of the marketed innovative drug.In the specific case study process,this paper uses the logistic function to predict the life cycle of this class of patents,the prediction method makes the determination of the patent life cycle more objective,and at the same time uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the contribution rate of patents in different life cycles,and finally uses the binary tree option model and dynamic income method to draw evaluation conclusions Through this specific case study,this paper draws the following conclusions: First,the evaluation of innovative drug patents should be carried out in combination with the life cycle of this large class of patents.The life cycle of such patented technologies will have a direct impact on the future revenue prediction stage of innovative drugs.Second,the patent value of innovative drugs is reflected in the value of multiple related patent portfolios.Proceeds from marketed drugs are part of their source of value,and patents for new indications that are not under development are also potentially valuable.Third,the use of binary tree option model combined with dynamic return method is a combination of methods suitable for evaluating the patent value of innovative drugs.The case studies in this paper enrich the theoretical research in the field of patent value evaluation of innovative drugs,and also provide some specific ideas for valuation professionals when evaluating related businesses,paying attention to the impact of patent portfolios formed by innovative drug enterprises on patent value,fully understanding the R&D pipeline of products,taking into account unlisted indications under development,and paying attention to the degree of contribution of patents to the value of innovative drugs in the life cycle of patented technology,so as to avoid inflated evaluation results. |
