Research On FMEA Method And Application Based On Evidence Theory In Group Conflict Environment

As a risk and reliability management method,failure mode and effects analysis(FMEA)can identify and analyze potential risks in systems,products and processes in advance,so that management strategies can be developed to prevent the occurrence of risks or reduce their scope and extent according to their hazard level.As the focus of economic and social development shifts to quality,the value of FMEA research for ensuring production safety,improving product performance,and maintaining social stability has become increasingly prominent.Aiming at the shortcomings of the traditional FMEA method,many scholars use the multi-criteria group decision-making model to improve it.Few scholars have paid attention to the trust and conflict relationships among FMEA team members(TMs).In fact,since FMEA TMs come from different sectors and areas with different knowledge,experience and personal interests,conflict within the team is widespread.Overly focused conflict can hinder the decision-making process,damage team relationships and potentially lead to unreliable results.However,the social relationships of TMs are rarely included by into the conflict measurement procedure,and there is a lack of research on eliminating conflicts based on TMs’ social network analysis to improve group coherence and result validity.In addition,although probabilistic linguistic term sets(PLTSs)have been widely used for the assessment of failure modes(FMs),the commonly used standardized methods and aggregation operators have the disadvantage of being cumbersome to process and prone to loss and distortion of information.Furthermore,most of the existing FMEA methods ignore the correlation between FMs,which is likely to lead to inaccurate results.Therefore,this paper constructs a conflict elimination-based FMEA model,which includes a conflict elimination mechanism for FMEA and a DEMATEL-PROMETHEE decision framework considering regret psychology.The former eliminates conflicts to improve group consistency and harmony by constructing and analyzing the social network of TMs;the latter determines a reliable ranking of FMs by comprehensively considering their relationships and TMs’ regret psychology.The research content and results of this paper are summarized as follows:(1)Research on FMEA methods in PLTSs environments.Most of the existing group decision models in the probabilistic language environment use aggregation operators such as weighted average operators to fuse information.This paper processes and fuses assessment information in the form of PLTSs within the framework of evidence theory,which gives full play to the ability of PLTS to express evaluation flexibly and the power of evidence theory to deal with fuzzy and uncertain information.At the same time,due to some drawbacks of the traditional Dempster’s rule,this paper investigates how to improve the evidence synthesis rule and construct a decision framework based on it to rank FMs.(2)Research on the FMEA conflict elimination mechanism based on social network analysis.Firstly,in view of the randomness and inaccuracy of the existing trust value acquisition methods in social network analysis,and considering individuals’ ability and willingness to accept differences,a trust relationship prediction method based on bounded confidence is proposed to enhance the objectivity and reliability of social networks.Next,a conflict resolution mechanism that considers TMs’ internalities and externalities is designed to manage TMs’ conflicts and potential non-cooperative behaviors,so as to promote team consensus reaching and harmonious construction.In addition,First of all,in view of the randomness and inaccuracy of the existing trust value acquisition methods,and considering the ability and willingness of individuals to accept differences,a method for objectively predicting trust relationships based on bounded confidence is proposed to enhance the objectivity and accuracy of social networks.reliability.Then,a conflict resolution mechanism that considers internal and external members is designed to manage member conflicts and possible non-cooperative behaviors,so as to promote team consensus and harmonious construction.In addition,a dynamic weight determination method that comprehensively considers TMs’ conflict intensity and social importance is proposed in the process.(3)Research on FMEA methods based on DEMATEL.Most of the existing FMEA methods ignore the correlation and causality between FMs,thus often failing to obtain the comprehensive impact and reliable ranking of FMs.In this regard,based on evidence theory and grey correlation analysis(GRA),an objective method for generate the initial direct-relation matrix between FMs is proposed.Then,the causal categories of FMs and their causal relationships are further analyzed by the DEMATEL method to determine the prominence and influence of each FM.(4)Study of FMEA methods that consider regret psychology and internal dependencies.The role of decision maker(DM)psychology in real-life decision making has received increasing attention.Based on the results of the DEMATEL analysis,the combined utility of improving each FM on the system is first explored,while the loss aversion psychology of the DM is then considered through the regret-rejoice function.Then,the PROMETHEE II method is combined to obtain the final ranking of FMs.On the one hand,the PROMETHEE II method provides a way to analyze the transcendental relationship between FMs while avoiding the compensation between different RFs;on the other hand,the integration with regret theory fully accommodates the regret psychology triggered by loss aversion of DMs.Finally,the application process of the proposed evidence-based theory FMEA model in group conflict settings is illustrated through a case study of medical waste management,and the validity,robustness and superiority of the model are verified through results analysis,sensitivity analysis and comparative analysis.