A Research On The Causes Of Bond Default And Financial Early Warning Of Tunghsu Optoelectronic Technology

With the default of the "11 Chaori Bond" in 2014,the consensus of "rigid redemption" was completely broken,and the concept of bond default appeared in the domestic public’s field of vision.Nowadays,the total amount of bond transactions in China is continuously rising,and the amount of defaults have also exploded,which have a great impact on the overall ecology of the trading market and dispel investor enthusiasm.Therefore,the thesis takes bond default factors and financial early warning methods as the research direction,with Tunghsu Optoelectronic Technology as the main research object,and hopes to provide some insights for other bond default case studies.The thesis uses the literature research method and case research method,and establishes the theoretical analysis foundation of the case through a large number of documents.Next,the thesis sorts out the reasons for bond defaults from the macroeconomic downturn,the "deleveraging" policy,the falsely high bond rating,the blind operation of enterprises.Then the thesis analyzes the context of Tunghsu Optoelectronic Technology’ default and believes that its defaults are mainly due to the glass substrate industry recession and the company’s blind operation.Then,the thesis uses the "one-to-one matching method" to confirm default companies and control ones,and uses principal component analysis as well as Logistic regression to complete the final early warning model.The results show that the company predicts a default probability of less than 10% from 2012 to 2018,and it did not default during this period.The predicted default probabilities for 2020 and 2021 are 90.9% and 99.9%,respectively,and it really had defaulted bonds in both years.In the same period,the default probability of default and non-default companies were above 90% and below 10%,respectively,so the early warning success rate reached 86.7%.Finally,based on the previous research foundation,the thesis gives three policy recommendations from the perspective of credit rating agencies,companies,and investors to improve the supervision system,choose financial decisions,and comprehensively improve the risk identification capabilities of investors.