An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of The COVID-19 Pandemic On Individual Mortgage Loan Defaults

In recent years,with the vigorous development of the domestic real estate market,the personal housing mortgage loan business of commercial banks has also expanded rapidly,becoming one of their main loan businesses.From 2012 to 2022,the size of this business has increased by nearly 5 times.This trend makes commercial banks more dependent on the personal housing mortgage loan business,but it also leads them to ignore risks and pursue business development too much.However,the outbreak of COVID-19 in late 2019 has brought huge volatility to the Chinese economy,and the real estate market has also been affected,leading to a sharp increase in the default rate of housing mortgage loans.This study aims to explore the impact of the new crown epidemic on the default rate of personal housing mortgage loans in China.Taking Beijing A Bank as an example,the double difference research method is used.The loan customers of the Pinggu Subbranch in Pinggu District,Beijing,which was slightly affected by the new crown epidemic,were used as the control group,and the loan customers of the Wangjing Subbranch,Chaoyang District,which was more severely affected by the new crown epidemic,were used as the experimental group.Through the research on personal housing mortgage loan customers of Pinggu Sub-branch and Wangjing Sub-branch of Bank A of Beijing,the data of personal housing mortgage loans during the six-year period from the beginning of 2017 to the end of 2022 were observed,and a double difference model was constructed.The results show that the new crown epidemic has had a significant impact on the default rate of individual housing mortgage loans.Then,the robustness of the model was tested by using methods such as parallel trend test,PMS-DID test and placebo test.Then,under the influence of the new crown epidemic,the influence of borrower’s personal factors,loan factors and macroeconomic factors on default was further studied.Explore which types of loan customers are less likely to default due to the impact of the epidemic.Finally,according to the research results,relevant policy recommendations are put forward to help supervisory commercial banks cope with the impact of the new crown epidemic and accumulate experience in responding to public health emergencies.