Research On The Correlation Between RMB Exchange Rate And Import And Export Trad

With the development of the epidemic and the increasingly severe international situation,the economic and trade between countries are turbulent,and the exchange rate fluctuates,especially under the double impact of Sino-US trade friction and epidemic prevention and control,China’s import and export volume and GDP growth rate inevitably decline.Under this background,studying the relationship between exchange rate and import and export trade and forecasting the exchange rate trend can not only better judge the exchange rate trend and formulate countermeasures for the import and export industry,but also provide suggestions for foreign exchange management departments to avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuation.In the past,scholars’ research on exchange rate and import and export trade mostly used linear technology as the main research method,focusing on forecasting the future trend of exchange rate,and there was little research on the interaction mechanism between exchange rate and import and export trade.However,the relationship between exchange rate and import and export trade is complex and interactive,and it is not enough to predict the exchange rate unilaterally.Therefore,based on the method of system dynamics,this paper studies the correlation between exchange rate and import and export trade,which can not only predict the exchange rate,but also simulate the mechanism of exchange rate,import and export and other economic factors.The specific process is as follows: First of all,this paper studies and combs the relevant theories of exchange rate,economy,trade effect and system dynamics,and takes them as guiding theories to carry out empirical research.Secondly,taking exchange rate and import and export trade as a system,the system boundary and economic factors are determined,and the system is divided into three subsystems,namely,import subsystem,export subsystem and exchange rate and import and export trade system,and then the causality feedback diagram of each subsystem is drawn by Vensim PLE software.Thirdly,collect and sort out the variable data that affect the exchange rate and import and export trade from 2011 to 2021,give equations according to the data characteristics,build a system dynamics model,and transform the causality feedback diagram into a flowchart to predict and test the exchange rate and import and export amount.Then,the system dynamics model is used to simulate and analyze the exchange rate,import and export and other economic factors.Finally,according to the empirical research results,some suggestions are given on import and export trade and exchange rate.The results show that: 1.It is predicted that in 2022,RMB will depreciate,and the import volume and export volume will decrease.2.There is a causal relationship between exchange rate and import and export trade.We can’t determine the increase or decrease of import and export amount only by the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate,but we must consider foreign direct investment and consumer price index.3.The appreciation of RMB is inversely proportional to exports,and directly proportional to imports,GDP growth rate,consumer price index and foreign direct investment.Based on the above conclusions,three suggestions are put forward: 1.Upgrading the industrial structure and adjusting the foreign trade structure;Reduce dependence on foreign trade and promote domestic internal circulation.2.Adhere to the belt and road initiative and expand import channels;Encourage scientific and technological innovation and reduce import dependence.3.Continue to deepen the reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism,prevent the risk of exchange rate fluctuation,improve the self-adjustment mechanism of RMB exchange rate,and maintain a reasonable and balanced level of RMB exchange rate.