| Strengthening the financial stability guarantee system and keeping the bottom line of no systemic financial risks is the focus of current financial regulation.Good information disclosure helps financial institutions identify growing risks and is the basis of financial risk regulation.As the core of financial system,maintaining reasonable information transparency is of great strategic significance to ensure the stability of commercial banks and maintain the financial market order.However,drastic economic and political changes at home and abroad in recent years,with century-old changes and century-old epidemics intertwined,leading to rising uncertainty of global economic policies and seriously damaging the quality of banking information environment.At this point,commercial banks are likely to adopt unreasonable information disclosure policies,improve information opacity,and bring certain challenges to the stability of commercial banks.To explore the above problems,this work systematically studies the relationship among economic policy uncertainty,opacity and the stability of commercial banks by using the unbalanced panel data of listed commercial banks from 2007 to 2020.The empirical results show that the increase of economic policy uncertainty is not conducive to the stability of commercial banks.Moreover,there is a heterogeneous effect:the influence of economic policy uncertainty on non-systemically important banks is greater,and the negative influence on the stability of joint-stock commercial banks,state-owned commercial banks and city commercial banks is enhanced successively.By further exploring the internal influencing mechanism,we find that the opacity plays a partial mediating role between the uncertainty of economic policy and the stability of commercial banks.Economic policy uncertainty increases information asymmetry and income volatility,creating opportunities and incentives for commercial banks to reduce information disclosure.By increasing the opacity of stock price information and accounting information,banks can reduce the disclosure of negative information and release the signal of good operation to the outside world,which leads to the lack of supervision and the intensification of information asymmetry,and indirectly has a negative impact on the stability of commercial banks.From the perspective of information asymmetry,this study analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the stability of Chinese commercial banks and its transmission path,and emphasizes the important role of maintaining reasonable information transparency on the stability of commercial banks in the context of the increasing uncertainty of domestic economic policy.Based on the results of empirical analysis,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions from the four levels of the government,regulatory authorities,commercial banks and stakeholders,and points out the limitations of this study and the direction of future research as well. |
