Research On The Influence Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On China’s Agricultural Products Imports

Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis,the economies of all countries in the world have been severely impacted,and a series of "black swan" events have occurred frequently.In order to achieve rapid economic recovery,various countries have introduced different economic policies including finance,trade,currency,exchange rate,etc.,which has led to a sharp rise in the uncertainty of domestic and foreign economic policies.Agriculture is the basic industry of the national economy,and the trade of agricultural products is the focus of attention of all countries and is most vulnerable to the uncertainty of economic policies.Therefore,in the complex period of economic recovery and turbulence in the world,it is very important to deeply analyze the impact on the import of agricultural products.Based on the relevant research of domestic and foreign experts and scholars,and based on the theory of uncertainty,real options and precautionary motivation,etc.,this paper adopts the economic policy uncertainty index calculated by Baker et al.(2016),Huang and Luk(2020)and Using data from official statistical databases such as the General Administration of Customs of China and CEIC,using methods such as descriptive statistics and fixed-effect models,based on the analysis of domestic and foreign economic policy uncertainty and the current situation of agricultural imports,the study of domestic and source countries’ economic policies The impact of uncertainty on China’s agricultural imports.The analysis of the status quo shows that: when “uncertainty” events occur,the uncertainty of global economic policies will increase rapidly,such as: the world financial crisis,the European debt crisis,etc.Policy uncertainty;the proportion of China’s agricultural imports in the world’s agricultural imports has increased year by year,of which the second category of plant products accounted for the largest proportion,but it has declined year by year.For the first category of live animals,the proportion of animal products has increased year by year;Brazil is the most important source of agricultural imports.The empirical analysis shows that:(1)China’s economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive correlation with China’s agricultural imports,while foreign economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative correlation with China’s agricultural imports.(2)Research by category of agricultural products,it is concluded that foreign economic policy uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on the import of the second category of plant products,and domestic economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on the import of various agricultural products.(3)Dividing the import source countries,it is concluded that the increase of the economic policy uncertainty index of developed countries will have a significant inhibitory effect on the import of agricultural products,and the impact of changes in the economic policy uncertainty index of developing countries will not be affected.Significantly.This paper puts forward the following suggestions:(1)Improve the current situation of domestic agricultural production,focus on the introduction of domestic scarce agricultural products and excellent varieties and the research and development of high-yield and high-quality agricultural products.(2)Open up new import markets to diversify the risks caused by economic policy uncertainty and reduce dependence on the import of agricultural products from developed countries.(3)Create an intelligent information sharing platform,formulate relevant policies to strengthen and benefit farmers and help farmers,and strengthen support for the purchase of agricultural equipment.