Study On The Evaluation Of The Development Level Of Agricultural Mechanization In XPCC

During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,the work of agriculture,rural areas and farmers has entered a new stage of comprehensively promoting rural revitalization and accelerating agricultural and rural modernization,which has put forward higher requirements for the comprehensive and high-quality development of agricultural mechanization.In order to accelerate the rapid development of agricultural mechanization in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps,and realize the comprehensive mechanization of the agricultural mechanization of the Corps as soon as possible,it is necessary to carry out an objective and comprehensive comprehensive evaluation and development forecast of the current level of agricultural mechanization in the Corps.In response to this demand,this thesis conducts a research on the evaluation of the development level of agricultural mechanization in the XPCC.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the current status of the development of agricultural mechanization in the XPCC,build an evaluation index system for the development level of agricultural mechanization in the XPCC,and determine three primary evaluation indicators and thirteen secondary evaluation indicators,including operation level of agricultural mechanization,comprehensive support capability of agricultural mechanization and comprehensive benefits of agricultural mechanization.(2)Based on the relevant statistical data of the evaluation indexes of the Corps from 2011 to 2020,according to the correlation between the indexes,the fuzzy GRA-DEMATEL model is used to calculate the influence degree,affected degree,centrality and cause degree of the evaluation indexes at all levels,construct the causality diagram between the indexes,quantify the interaction between the evaluation indexes,and identify the key influencing factors of the development level of agricultural mechanization of the Corps.The results show that the key factors affecting the development level of Agricultural Mechanization in BINGTUAN are the level of plant protection mechanization,the level of harvest mechanization,the power of agricultural machinery per unit sowing area and the ownership of rural agricultural machinery personnel.(3)the fuzzy GRA-DANP model is used to construct the unweighted super matrix between the indexes,calculate the weighted super matrix and limit super matrix,calculate the global weight of the evaluation indexes at all levels,and obtain the comprehensive evaluation value of the development level of agricultural mechanization and the evaluation indexes at all levels from 2011 to 2020 by TOPSIS method.The evaluation results show that during the study period,the agricultural development level of XPCC is rising steadily,and the annual growth rate is relatively stable.The operation level of agricultural mechanization presents a high development trend,and the evaluation value of comprehensive support capacity and comprehensive benefits of agricultural mechanization is relatively low,which is consistent with the current development status of agricultural mechanization of XPCC.(4)Taking the development level of agricultural mechanization of XPCC and the comprehensive evaluation value of each primary index during the study period as samples,and taking the principle of minimizing the sum of squares of errors as the principle,appropriate grey GM(1,1)models are selected to predict comprehensive evaluation value of the follow-up study area and the primary evaluation index.The prediction results can pass the average relative residual test and the average grade ratio deviation test.The results show that it is feasible to use the grey GM(1,1)model to predict the development level,operation level,comprehensive support capacity and comprehensive benefits of Agricultural Mechanization in XPCC.