Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Commercial Housing Price And Prediction Of Price Trend

The real estate industry is a new economic growth area in China.As commercial residential buildings are the top priority of the real estate industry,the research on them is very necessary,and thus the law concerning the development of the real estate industry can be found.As a new first-tier city,Zhengzhou is one of the 16 pilot cities established by the government to pursue its own long-term regulation policies in 2019.The real estate industry in Zhengzhou has sustained a great momentum of development.As one of the nine national central cities,Zhengzhou suffered “7.20” rainstorm in 2021 as well as the pandemic in the past two years.So the research on its commercial housing market makes more sense.Therefore,we focus on the price of commercial residential buildings in Zhengzhou to conduct empirical research,in order to explore factors that affect the price fluctuation,give the future trend of housing price,and provide targeted suggestions according to the research results.Based on the theory of supply and demand,cost theory,and relevant policies,using the statistical data from 2002 to 2020,this paper selects 14 factors that affect the price of commercial residential buildings in Zhengzhou.Firstly,the principal component analysis is used to reduce the dimension of the sample data and eliminate the collinearity problem between variables.It is found that the fluctuation of commercial housing price in Zhengzhou is mainly affected by the supply and demand relationship,costs and consumption desires.Secondly,the principal component score is regressed with the housing price to get the degree of influence of each variable on the housing prices.The main influencing factors are: per capita GDP,per capita disposable income in cities and towns,urbanization rate,total population,investment in fixed assets,average wage of on-the-job employees,investment in real estate development and sales area of commercial residential buildings.Then,according to the consumer price index of urban residents and the area of the land purchased by real estate development enterprises,the policy is quantified into three states: positive,moderate and negative,and the quantitative values are0.99228,0.88248 and 0.015875 respectively.Finally,BP neural network is constructed and the predicted value of commercial housing price in Zhengzhou under three policy states is output.According to the empirical analysis and the predicted price of commercial residential buildings,it is found that the price of commercial residential buildings in Zhengzhou will rise steadily in the future.The negative policy will delay the speed of price rise,and the increase will gradually stabilize.