| With the further opening to the outside world,Foreign Direct Investment(FDI),as the primary form of modern capital internationalization,has profoundly impacted the Chinese economic development and real estate market.At present,the increasing trend of trade protectionism and “anti-globalization” makes the inflow of FDI full of uncertainties.Meanwhile,the frequent regulations of the real estate market have also exacerbated the influence on macroeconomic performance.Therefore,the linkage between FDI,economic growth,and real estate prices has become less clear at this stage.From the perspective of economic openness,this paper delves into the interactivities of the relationship between these three variables under the changing financial situation.Based on time-varying characteristics,this dynamic research not only helps to capture the operation patterns among economic variables at different development stages but also contributes to providing more forward-looking and effective policy recommendations on how to use foreign investment to serve economic development and the stability of real estate prices.This paper first summarizes the current research results on the relationship between FDI,economic growth,and real estate prices at home and abroad.It takes the existing shortcomings as the starting point for research.In addition,based on the new economic growth theory and the general equilibrium model of the real estate market,the interaction mechanism between the three variables under the open perspective is elaborated.Moreover,a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model measures the monthly GDP year-on-year growth rate.After analyzing the validity,this indicator is used as a proxy variable for economic growth.Finally,the time-varying features of the three variables are investigated after transforming them into co-frequency data.The bootstrap rolling-window approach was utilized to identify the dynamic variations of the causal linkage between the variables.However,the rolling causality test is only an investigation of the interaction between two variables.Therefore,this paper continued to include three variables in the TVP-VAR model to further describe the time-varying characteristics of the interaction patterns between three variables at different lag periods and different time points.The research results show that:(1)There is a bidirectional causal relationship between FDI and economic growth,and the linkage has prominent time-varying characteristics.With the increasing level of foreign capital utilization,the impact of FDI on economic growth has experienced a change from inhibiting to promoting effect.In contrast,economic growth has always maintained a stable positive promoting impact on FDI.(2)Not only does economic growth cause the rise of real estate prices,but FDI also drives the rise of real estate prices.Most of the sample periods show a positive promotion effect.However,in the early stage of real estate development,FDI enters the supply chain and alleviates the pressure of rising real estate prices to some extent.(3)The impact of real estate prices on economic growth and FDI has obvious time-varying characteristics.An appropriate increase in real estate prices promotes economic growth and FDI inflows.However,excessive climbing of real estate prices will inhibit economic development.It also raises the production cost of foreign investors and negatively impacts FDI.(4)From the perspective of the overall correlation,the operation pattern between variables has complex time-varying characteristics at different stages of FDI utilization.In the stage of restricting FDI inflow into real estate development,although it alleviates the upward pressure of real estate prices to some extent,it also has a negative impact on economic development.In the mature stage,FDI not only significantly drives economic growth,but also boosts the further rise of housing prices. |
