Research On The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Credit Allocation Efficiency

Economic policy is an important means for China to adjust its structure and promote transformation.To adapt to different stages of economic development and achieve different macroeconomic objectives,the policy tool combination and implementation strength of the government’s economic policy will be adjusted in time.China’s economic development has entered a “new normal”.The government continues to strengthen macroeconomic policies to adjust the economic structure.Especially after the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020,the government has successively introduced policies to support economic recovery and development,which have significantly increased China’s economic policy uncertainty and risks.The increasing economic policy uncertainty not only squeezes the profit space of enterprises,but also increases the resistance to obtain credit financing.As a result,real enterprises are facing difficulties in debt repayment,expanding financing,and capital turnover,especially the scarcity of economic resources.The resource allocation efficiency affects the normal production and operation activities of enterprises and the market competitiveness of enterprises.As an important carrier of finance,fund allocation efficiency is very important to the future development of enterprises.China’s government departments have always played a key role in the credit market.How to effectively alleviate the mismatch of credit funds and coordinate the role of the government and the market to improve the fund allocation efficiency has become a key issue concerned by policymakers and academic circles.Based on the framework of the elasticity coefficient method and the data of Chinese non-financial listed companies,this paper measures the fund allocation efficiency from two aspects of enterprise credit fund acquisition and utilization.Secondly,this paper qualitatively analyzes how economic policy uncertainty affects fund allocation efficiency and puts forward the research hypothesis that economic policy uncertainty affects fund allocation efficiency.Thirdly,in order to quantitatively analyze whether economic policy uncertainty affects the fund allocation efficiency,this paper constructs a fixed-effect model and takes the data of Chinese non-financial listed companies from 2003 to 2019 as a sample to investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the fund allocation efficiency.In addition,to confirm the reliability of the benchmark regression results,this paper makes a robustness test from the aspects of transformation index measurement method,transformation parameter estimation method,controlling regional and industrial differences and using instrumental variables.Finally,in order to test whether there is heterogeneity in the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the fund allocation efficiency,this paper analyzes the heterogeneity of the relationship between the two from four dimensions: region,degree of marketization,enterprise ownership and enterprise scale.In addition,in order to verify the research hypothesis,this paper makes a mechanism test and analysis.Further,according to the theoretical analysis and empirical results,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.The results show that the increase of economic policy uncertainty will significantly inhibit credit allocation efficiency.In addition,mechanism analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty can inhibit credit allocation efficiency by reducing enterprise active risk-taking and aggravating the cash flow uncertainty.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that when the economic policy uncertainty increases,the credit allocation efficiency of central and western regions,low degree of marketization,private enterprises,and small-scale enterprises tends to decline to a greater extent.The robust test finds that the conclusion of this paper is still valid after changing the measurement method of indicators,the parameter estimation method,controlling regional and industrial differences.In view of this,when formulating and implementing policies,the policy authorities should maintain the coherence,transparency,and predictability of economic policies,and strengthen the supervision of the policy implementation process.In addition,for the central and western regions,low degree of marketization,private enterprises and small-scale enterprises,it is more necessary to improve the sensitivity to policy changes and enhance the ability of enterprises to deal with uncertain risks.At the same time,financial institutions should pay attention to the management of credit funds related to policies,eliminate the abuse of funds and realize the effective allocation of funds.