| In recent years,it has become a consensus that China’s population is gradually ageing,and the trend is going to continue in the foreseeable future.The number of retirees is rising year by year and the level of pension entitlements is increasing,resulting in deficit spending of pension and making the contradiction between the fund’s revenues and expenditures more acute.Besides,the pension insurance funds contain historical implied liabilities as a result of the social security system transition,and the large amount part owed by individuals run on empty accounts.Due to the reasons above,sustainability of the pension insurance system is facing challenges.In order to solve the problems of pension fund income and expenditure,our society has provided some ideas and solutions,including deferring retirement.In fact,the debate on deferred retirement policy has not stopped in recent years.In 2020,the Central Government officially proposed the implementation of a gradual statutory retirement age.So far,people’s concern has changed from "whether to implement deferred retirement" to "how to implement deferred retirement".Under this circumstance,we need to examine the role of deferred retirement policy from the perspective of pension fund revenues and expenditures,so that the retirement system can better exploit the positive effects of the policy.Only in this way,can the imbalance of fund revenues and expenditures be alleviated,and adapt to the development of society.This paper illustrates the impact of the deferred retirement policy on the revenues and expenditures of the pension fund in the case of Sichuan Province,and follows the idea of "presenting realistic problems,analyzing problems and causes,and giving suggestions for countermeasures".Using descriptive statistics,the study introduces the operation of the basic pension insurance for urban employees in Sichuan Province in recent years,and then identifies the problems in the operation of the system,explores the causes of the problems.Four different deferred retirement schemes are then designed based on previous studies.Based on the formulae constructed for calculating the number of participants and fund revenues and expenditures,and in accordance with the latest policy requirements and data,this paper simulates and predicts the revenues and expenditures of the basic pension insurance fund for urban enterprise workers in Sichuan Province for the next 50 years,and compares the impact of different deferred retirement schemes on the fund revenues and expenditures.The study shows results as follows: First,if deferred retirement is not implemented,the demographic dividend will gradually disappear.While the increasing number of retirees and the yearly increase in the level of pension insurance benefits will greatly increase the pressure on pension insurance payments.Second,the deferred retirement policy can cope with the current demographic changes in China,increase the income from pension fund collection and reduce pension expenditure,which is an effective way to ease the pressure on pension fund income and expenditure.Third,the gradual implementation of deferred retirement reform is both a priority choice for the country and society and an inevitable development trend.Fourth,regardless of the options,the deferred retirement policy can only ease the pressure on the income and expenditure of the pension insurance fund.It cannot completely solve the problem that the fund cannot be able to cover its expenses in the future,but it can buy some time for the future reform of the pension insurance system.Under this circumstance,in order to balance the revenues and expenditures of basic pension insurance fund for urban employees in Sichuan Province effectively,this paper proposes policy recommendations as follows: implementing agedifferentiated retirement for men and women;implementing deferred retirement gradually;advocating a flexible retirement incentive mechanism;enhancing the publicity of deferred retirement policy and improving the pension insurance system. |
