Research On Grey Hierarchical Group Consensus Method

Consensus decision-making exists in every aspect of people life.Ranging from national politics,economy,and culture,such as the Sino-US trade friction issue;to the decisions of corporates,such as corporate investment and development of new products;and personal life,such as commodity selection,etc.The continuous development of social economy has put forward new requirements for group consensus decision-making.Compared with the traditional decision-making environment,the scale of decision-makers,decision information,and consensus level measurement methods in complex environments have changed.Therefore,it urgently needs some new consensus methods to solve these new problems.The decision-making environment is complexity,and people’s cognitive abilities are limited,the grey system theory including the methods of grey relational,grey target decision and grey situation decision that can reasonably handle "partially known information" have become powerful tools for conflict analysis and consensus decision-making.However,the core idea of the existing grey group decision-making methods are to consider the ordering of alternatives according to the attributes of the alternatives,mainly focusing on the processing and aggregation of decision makers information.In addition,the existing grey group decision-making methods combining grey information with fuzzy information and other forms of information expression,emphasizing the processing of different information.However,in a certain sense,only using the weight information of the decision makers and the decision indicators to sort the alternatives cannot make the decision makers satisfied with the consensus results,and may cause information loss.These simple and direct grey group decision-making methods are sometimes difficult to meet the practical needs,and the sorting results are not enough to fully explain the practical significance.Based on this,considering the naturally existing social hierarchy relationship between decision makers,combined with the idea of minimum cost group consensus,we construct a single-objective grey hierarchal group consensus model and a multi-objective grey hierarchal group consensus model to solve and different needs of decision problem.The economic implications of the model are intuitively explained in practical application scenarios.The grey hierarchal group consensus model broadens the applicable scenarios of the group consensus model,and has profound practical significance.There are two main research contents in this paper:(1)A single-objective grey hierarchical group consensus model is constructed.This paper describes the single-objective grey hierarchical decision-making information system,and introduce the related concepts and assumptions.This paper studies the spontaneous consensus process without coordinator and the minimum cost grey hierarchal group consensus process with coordinator.When considering the coordinator,the minimum-cost grey hierarchical group consensus model is designed.The model considers the social network hierarchy of decision-makers and the constraints of subsidy costs.The model can reflect the interaction process of decision-makers’ opinions.Compared with the existing grey group decision-making model,the role of weights is weakened,and the information loss that may be caused by weight aggregation is avoided.In addition,the nature of the model is analyzed and a solution algorithm is designed,which is applied to the "rural natural gas subsidy" scenario.This paper compares and analyzes the influence of the coordinator’s role on the group consensus results.When there is no coordinator,residents can only form a low-level group consensus and cannot reach a global consensus.also,we make a sensitivity analysis of the subsidy amount budget.Then we intuitively explain the reality meaning of the single-objective grey hierarchical group consensus model.(2)A multi-objective grey hierarchical group consensus model is constructed.This paper describes the multi-objective grey hierarchical decision-making information system,and introduce the related concepts and assumptions.For group consensus problems of different scales,different identification rules are designed,and invalid decision-making information is eliminated according to the rules,which effectively avoid decision makers’ manipulation of group consensus results.This paper solves the multi-attribute group consensus problem by using the grey situation decision-making idea.With the goal of maximizing the degree of group consensus,the group consensus results are obtained under the constraints of limited coordination resources and preserving the initial opinions of decision makers as much a s possible.The model is applied to the selection of aviation instrument suppliers of Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China,Ltd.,and the economic meaning of the model is more intuitively explained.From this multi-objective grey level group consensus problem,we can know that if invalid decisions are not eliminated,the acceptable supplier selection priority of each department will change from supplier 1,supplier 2,supplier 3 to supplier 1,supplier 3,supplier 2.In addition,the sensitivity of the group consensus degree to the coordination cost budget and the sensitivity of the coordination cost to the preset lower limit of the group consensus degree are further analyzed.According to the sensitivity analysis results,we can provide some decision-making suggestions for Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Limited.