The Empirical Research On The Empact Of Managerial Competence On Stock Price Crash Risk

The development of capital market brings many opportunities and challenges,but also inevitably accompanied by greater risks.In recent years,there have been frequent stock price crashes in China’s stock markets,which not only threaten the safety of the country’s financial system,but also greatly hinder the healthy and stable development of the real economy.Therefore,how to reduce the risk of stock price collapse has become an important academic research topic.Existing studies show that the risk of stock price crash is mainly caused by the selfish behavior of the management in the whole process of information disclosure in order to conceal the bad news and poor performance of the company.Because the management has the dual identity of decision maker and information publisher,this thesis attempts to explore the impact of management capability on stock price crash risk,and to explore the mediating role of analyst forecasting error between the two in view of the information intermediary status of analysts.Based on the theories of high echelon theory,reputation theory and behavioral finance,this thesis deeply studies the influence of management capability on stock price crash risk and the mediating role of analyst prediction error.The thesis takes the financial data of all A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2020 as research samples,after a series of data elimination,8200 research samples were obtained.This thesis adopts DEA-Tobit two-stage regression model to measure management capability,puts forward three hypotheses,and constructs empirical regression model to test them.The research results show that with the improvement of management ability,the concealing of "bad news" inside the enterprise is significantly reduced,the improvement of information quality can ease the information asymmetry inside and outside the enterprise,the stock price is more consistent with the intrinsic value of the enterprise,and the risk of collapse is reduced.The more competent the management is,the more willing they are to issue quantitative performance forecasts,and the more likely they are to adopt the conservatism principle to reduce earnings volatility due to risk aversion.Under the double influence of the increase of information content and the decrease of forecasting difficulty,the analyst forecasting error is reduced.Further research shows that the analyst forecast error plays a partial mediating role in the two.Finally,come to the conclusion and some suggestions for the company,government and industry analysts,the enterprise shall strengthen the management ability level education and the construction of the comprehensive evaluation index,the government should establish and improve the competitive professional manager market as soon as possible,analysts industry should pay attention to the importance of perfecting laws and regulations system,improve the level of the industry as a whole.