Analysis On Sino-Korea Trade Structure Of Agro-Products And Its Trend Forecast

China and Korea are separated by only a strip of water and having close economic exchanges.Especially since the establishment of diplomatic ties in1992,bilateral trade between China and Korea has achieved rapid growth.The sum of bilateral trades had increased by 38.8 times from 1992 to 2020.In 2020,China became Korea’s largest trade partner,while Korea became China’s third largest trade partner.In Sino-Korea trade,agro-products trades occupy an important position.However,the development of agro-products trades between China and Korea did not give full play to its potential,only increasing by 4.8 times from 2000 to 2020.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to analyze the evolution of the trade structure of agro-products import and export between China and Korea to promote the export of China’s agricultural products and deepen the trade cooperation between China and Korea.Based on relevant international trade theories and grey model technology,this paper analyzes the evolution and trend forecast of Sino-Korea’s agricultural trade import and export structure from 2000 to 2020,in order to provide decision-making reference for promoting the healthy and coordinated development of Sino-Korea’s agro-products trade.In this paper,the main factors affecting the import and export of agro-products trade between China and Korea are analyzed by using the grey correlation analysis method.The sum of bilateral trades of agro-products(import and export)between China and Korea is selected as the system characteristic series,and the GDP of China and Korea,the sum of foreign trade of China and Korea and the gross industrial output of China and Korea are selected as the influencing factor series.The results showed that the main factors influencing the sum of import and export of agro-products between China and Korea were GDP of Korea,gross output value of South Korea’s secondary industry,gross output value of Korea’s tertiary industry and the sum of foreign trade of China.The main factors influencing the import trade of agro-products from China to Korea were the gross output value of China’s primary industry,the gross output value of China’s secondary industry,China’s GDP and the sum of foreign trade of China.The main factors influencing China’s export of agro-products to Korea were the sum of foreign trade of Korea,the gross output value of Korea’s primary industry,the gross output value of Korea’s secondary industry and Korea’s GDP.Secondly,from both subjective and objective aspects,the development of Sino-Korea’s agro-products trade from 2000 to 2020 is divided into three different stages: oscillating growth stage(2000-2008),high-speed growth stage(2009-2014)and steady growth stage(2015-2020).Then,based on the classification of agro-products by HS code,the evolution analysis of the trade structure of agro-products in each stage is carried out.It is found that most of the agro-products imported from Korea to China are resource-intensive products,while most of the agro-products exported from China to Korea are primary raw materials or agro-products with low added value.In the oscillating growth stage of Sino-Korea agro-products trade,the fourth category of agro-products,such as food;and the second category of agro-products,such as plant products,occupied the main position in Sino-Korea agro-products export trade,accounting for 51.68% and 32.04%,respectively.In the high-speed growth stage,the fourth category of agro-products,such as food,occupied the main position in Sino-Korea’s agro-products import and export trade,accounting for 66.14% and 36.72%.In the steady growth stage,the fourth category of agro-products,such as food,occupied the main position in Sino-Korea’s agro-products import and export trade,accounting for 71.10% and40.99%.Over the years,the main agro-products exported from China to Korea have a stable structure,with the largest proportion of the first category of agro-products being aquatic products.The structure of main agro-products exported by Korea to China is also relatively stable,with aquatic products in the first category and sugar in the fourth category accounting for a large proportion of exports.Finally,the GM(1,1)prediction model is used to forecast the sum of import and export amount of various Sino-Korea’s agro-products in 2021-2025,and then the evolution trend of the trade structure of Sino-Korea’s agro-products is predicted.The results showed that the trade structure of Sino-Korea’s agro-products in 2021-2025 had little change compared with that in 2000-2020.Among them,in China’s agro-products import trade with Korea,the share of the first category of agro-products,such as live animals,decreased from 19.16% to 15.66%,down 3.5percentage point,and the share of the fourth category of agro-products,such as food,increased from 71.30% to 74.54%,up 3.24 percentage point.In China’s agro-products export trade to Korea,the share of the second category of agro-products,such as plant products,decreased from 31.42% to 29.51%,down 1.91 percentage point,and the share of the fourth category of agro-products,such as food,increased from 37.18% to38.92%,up 1.74 percentage point.Based on the above research,this paper puts forward some suggestions such as improving the quality of agricultural products,so as to make contributions to improving the competitiveness of China’s agro-products,improving the trade structure of Sino-Korea’s agro-products,and promoting the sustainable and healthy development of Sino-Korea’s agro-products.