Sino-US Trade War,industry Characteristic Difference And Market Reaction

In the early stage of reform and opening up,the global economy was centered on the United States and driven by China.At that time,China was called the world’s processing plant,providing labor for the world.Since the beginning of the 21 st century,China has made unparalleled achievements in economic,military,political and other fields.Meanwhile,the gap between China and the US in economic aggregate has been narrowing and China’s global share has been expanding.China has actively participated in world cooperation,initiated One Belt And One Road and assumed international responsibilities.While expanding its own strength and influence,China has driven global development.Under the trend of economic globalization,trade between China and the US should be mutually beneficial and win-win.However,the US launched trade war with China,citing its huge trade deficit.This thesis takes the trade war as the research background and uses the event study method to conduct an in-depth analysis on the impact of the implementation of US tariff policy.Five key events in the trade war are selected as the research objects and divided into three categories.The first category is the outbreak of trade,the second category is the mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US,and the third category is the negotiation and reconciliation between China and the US.The market reaction of the three types of events to agriculture,textile and clothing industry and high-tech industry is mainly analyzed.Then further study the market response differences caused by firm heterogeneity from four aspects of the property right nature,the level of internal control,the innovation ability and the liquidity.The writing structure of the article is divided into five chapters.The first chapter is the introduction.Firstly,it introduces the background and research significance of this thesis.Secondly,the literature review of the existing domestic and foreign literatures is carried out.Secondly,it expounds the research ideas and methods of this thesis to build a research framework for this thesis.Finally,it summarizes the innovation and insufficiency of this thesis.The second chapter is a case introduction,which mainly introduces the development course of Sino-US trade,the current situation of Sino-US trade and the causes of Sino-US trade friction.The third chapter is market response study,mainly studying the impact brought by the occurrence of key events,analyzing the market reaction between agriculture and non-agriculture,textile and clothing industry and non-textile and non-clothing industry,high-tech industry and non-high-tech industry,and then making a comparative analysis on the difference of their impact.The fourth chapter is the research on the difference of market response under heterogeneity.It mainly studies the difference of market response caused by the existence of enterprise heterogeneity from the four aspects of property right nature,internal control level,innovation ability and asset liquidity.The fifth chapter is the research conclusions and recommendations,mainly to summarize the research results of this thesis,and put forward relevant policy recommendations for the trade war.In this thesis,the event study method is used to calculate the excess return AR and cumulative excess return CAR of each event.The announcement date is taken as the event day,and(0,1),(0,3),(0,5)and(-5,5)are taken as the event window of cumulative excess return.Through the analysis of this thesis,the following conclusions can be drawn: First,the occurrence of the first type of event makes the agriculture,textile and clothing industry and high-tech industry have a positive market reaction.Second,the occurrence of the second type of events,the US formulated a detailed tariff plan,while China took countermeasures,resulting in a negative market reaction,among which the agricultural and high-tech industry market suffered more negative impact.Third,the occurrence of the third type of event,China and the United States met for consultation and reached a consensus to stop imposing additional tariffs,resulting in a positive market reaction in most markets.In the research on the difference of market response under heterogeneity,the following four conclusions are drawn: First,in a negative market,the negative impact of state-owned enterprises may be alleviated with the support and help of the government,resulting in a good market response.However,this mitigating effect is limited.If the negative impact is too large,the impact of state-owned enterprises will be greater.Second,enterprises with a higher level of internal control are more likely to get a better market response.Third,the stock prices of enterprises with strong innovation ability perform better in positive markets and worse in negative markets.But sectors that are not suited to research and development tend to underperform in any market.Fourth,sectors with more liquid assets generally have a better market reaction.At the same time,this thesis puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions: first,vigorously support tax-related enterprises,reduce the risk of enterprise bankruptcy;Second,optimize the product supply chain,increase the risk bearing capacity;Third,strengthen the level of internal control of enterprises,improve the corporate governance structure;Fourth,balance market and research and development,pay attention to market demand;Fifth,improve the enterprise’s self-cognition,optimize the asset structure;Sixth,strengthen cooperation and communication between the two countries to reduce trade frictions.