Evaluation Of Lithium Battery Enterprise Value Based On Schwartz-Moon Model

In recent years,"carbon neutralization" and "carbon compliance" have become issues of increasing concern to the state and the public.Vigorously developing new energy has become the general trend.China is forging ahead towards the goal of building the world’s largest lithium battery industry manufacturing base.Lithium battery is the "heart" of new energy vehicles.The performance of lithium battery guarantees the quality of new energy vehicles.Major manufacturers compete to invest in the upstream,middle and downstream industries of lithium-ion batteries.The investment,financing and M & A activities of lithium-ion battery enterprises have increased on a large scale,and the market competition is becoming increasingly fierce.Most of the academic research on lithium-ion batteries in China focuses on their technology.Therefore,it is necessary to find an appropriate pricing model to evaluate lithium-ion battery enterprises,so as to provide a basis for investors’ investment decisions.At the theoretical level,this thesis first combs the industrial chain of lithium battery,introduces the theory of enterprise valuation in detail,analyzes the influencing factors of enterprise value based on the development status and characteristics of lithium battery industry,and analyzes in detail the limitations of traditional evaluation methods and the applicability of real option method.According to the analysis of lithium battery industry and value influencing factors,this thesis puts forward a new valuation idea,that is,using Schwartz moon pricing model to value lithium battery enterprises and optimize the model.In the case analysis,Xinwangda,which has broad future development prospects and great uncertainty in the development direction in the lithium battery industry,is selected as the evaluation case,and the applicability of the model is explained.The results of Schwartz moon model are compared with the valuation results of income method,and the sensitivity analysis of model parameters is carried out to obtain the parameters that have a significant impact on enterprise value.Finally,it puts forward some deficiencies in the construction idea and application scope of the model,and looks forward to the development of the value of lithium battery enterprises.The conclusions of this thesis are as follows: firstly,the use of Schwartz-moon model can more accurately reflect the potential option value of Xinwangda.Secondly,The Monte Carlo simulation in Schwartz-moon model and the setting of volatility parameters can fit the characteristics of the development uncertainty of lithium battery enterprises,and the long-term variable cost rate and estimation period have a significant impact on the evaluation results of the model.Thirdly,Schwartz moon model has the problem of strong subjectivity.For example,the selection of mature enterprises and the selection of comparable enterprises when using the exit multiple method are subjective.The appraisers should choose the parameters of the model more carefully.In general,through the case analysis of Xinwangda,Schwartz moon model can expand the value evaluation method of lithium battery enterprises,reflect the internal value of lithium battery enterprises more accurately than the discounted cash flow method,and provide pricing basis for enterprises to identify their own value and mergers and acquisitions.