| With the advancement of interest rate marketization,exchange rate marketization,and opening of capital account,China’s financial liberalization trend has continued to intensify,and the pace of opening up has further accelerated.At the same time,China enters the new normal and therefore proposed the establishment of a "dual circulation" development pattern in which domestic economic cycle plays a leading role.This situation requires the monetary policy framework to be adjusted accordingly.As a consequence,studying the effects of monetary policy rules is of great significance for better understanding of monetary policy operations in line with China’s practice.Considering the time-varying and structural changes of China’s macroeconomics,the time-varying parameter is accepted to capture economic characters,identify the short-term,medium-term and long-term effect,the conclusions are summed up as following: Firstly,in different stage,the forms of impulse response of price and quantitative rules are basically the same,and the response amplitude presents a fluctuating state with strong time-varying characteristics.Secondly,quantitative and price rules show different regulation effects international capital flow and exchange rate respectively.Price rule have higher flexibility and effectiveness.The regulation effect of quantitative rule is stronger and intense than that of price rule.However,with the smooth of transmission mechanism of interest rate,price rule is more flexible.Finally,the diffusion and lag features of quantitative rule and price rule always exist in the regulation of economic objectives.According to above conclusions,the following suggestions are put forward:Firstly,to implement monetary policy with stability as the center,develop the framework of price rule,further accelerate the improvement of relevant regulation means and supporting systems of interest rate,and give full play to the role of the market in cooperating with the central bank in promoting economic regulation,which has become the forward direction of further improving the monetary policy framework;Secondly,further develop the interest rate conduction mechanisms,focus on accuracy and efficiency,establish and improve the interest rate corridor of China;Thirdly,continue to promote the marketization of exchange rate,guide the exchange rate to fluctuate within a reasonable range and unblock the transmission mechanism of monetary policy;Fourthly,to prevent external financial risks from causing serious impact on the domestic economic environment,prudently and gradually open capital account control,analyze the scale and structure of short-term international capital flows,and study the transmission path of financial risks to prevent it. |
