Research On Vulnerability Assessment Of Supply Chain Of Fresh Agricultural Products Under Public Health Emergencies

The spread of COVID-19 has had a significant impact on China’s fresh agricultural product supply chain.The supply chain of fresh agricultural products has been disrupted since the outbreak of the epidemic due to village closures and road closures.The supply and demand for meat,eggs,milk,and other agricultural products have become disconnected,resulting in price increases.Due to the short freshness period,fresh agricultural products such as poultry and leafy vegetables have suffered significant damage.During the COVID-19 outbreak,the fresh agricultural supply chain was repeatedly disrupted,information flow was disrupted,and logistics instability resulted in fresh agricultural supply and demand staging and regional imbalance,highlighting the vulnerability.In the face of epidemic and other public health emergencies,it is critical to conduct research on the causes of vulnerability in China’s fresh agricultural supply chain,as well as to effectively warn and assess its vulnerability state.This paper first investigates the influencing factors and mechanisms of fresh agricultural supply chain vulnerability in China as a result of the epidemic.The SCOR model identified a total of 16 influencing factors of fresh agricultural supply chain vulnerability fluctuation from the five processes of planning,procurement,production,transportation,and return.Simulating the causality of influencing factors and construct a new agricultural supply chain vulnerability system model.The mechanism of different operational processes on the overall vulnerability of the supply chain was analyzed using the Vensim software result tree.On this basis,the fresh agricultural supply chain vulnerability evaluation index system was built.Second,a new agricultural supply chain vulnerability evaluation model is built.The vulnerability level of the fresh agricultural supply chain was dynamically divided based on the threshold theory,and the index thresholds and vulnerability level classification standards of different attribute categories were determined using the wave principle method,industrial standard search,and expert consultation method.To make the vulnerability evaluation index weight accurately reflect the actual situation of objective indicators,and to solve the problem of language value index difficult to quantify,this paper combines the two methods to determine the weighing values of,and vulnerability in hierarchies,and the weight on the basis of using the cloud model theory to construct the fresh agricultural products supply chain vulnerability and vulnerability evaluation modality.Third,the vulnerability of a fresh agricultural supply chain before and after the epidemic’s outbreak was assessed.Through the analysis of the supply chain operation mode,has chosen three typical fresh products supply chains as the research object,based on the collected data using a combination empowerment method to calculate index weight,will be indicators of weights and standardized data generation into the evaluation model,calculated each supply chain before and after the outbreak of an epidemic state of vulnerability and vulnerability of the process fluctuation situation.The evaluation results revealed that the vulnerability of meat products increased significantly after the outbreak of the epidemic,compared to fruit and vegetable products,and highlighted that the production process,procurement process,and transportation process are the three key nodes of vulnerability exposure in China’s supply chain of fresh agricultural products.Finally,the fresh agriculture supply chain vulnerability recovery plan is shown.Combined with outbreaks of fresh agricultural products supply chain vulnerability in our country in various processes to influence the outcome of factor analysis and empirical evaluation,aiming at each link has exposed the fragility of summed up the fresh agricultural products supply chain vulnerability repair strategy,thus for related policy and provide reference for the selection of fresh agricultural products supply chain related decision-making and reference.