Analysis Of Bond Default Risk Of Listed Real Estate Enterprise Taihe Group

In 2020,the default amount of bonds in the real estate industry was as high as 15.427 billion yuan,and the total default amount of real estate enterprises ranked among the top three in 2020.Bond default is closely related to the operation of enterprises.Once there are problems in enterprise operation,enterprise bonds face huge default risk;After the default of corporate bonds,the liquidity risk is exposed and investors vote with their feet,which will accelerate the deterioration of corporate operation.Therefore,it has application value to analyze the factors affecting the default risk of corporate bonds and identify the default risk of corporate bonds in time and effectively.Based on this,from the perspective of bond default of listed real estate enterprises,this paper selects Taihe Group,a typical case of bond default in the real estate industry,for case analysis,and discusses how to identify the default risk of corporate bonds more timely and effectively in combination with Z-score Model,improved KMV model and credit rating change process.Firstly,this paper introduces the current situation of China’s listed real estate enterprise bond market and the economic consequences of bond default,and explains the importance of discussing the risk of bond default.Secondly,it introduces the basic situation of Taihe Group,and analyzes the factors that affect the risk of default.According to the macro environment,including the continuous promotion of policies and the impact of COVID-19 on the economy,it analyzes the reasons from the enterprises themselves,including the heavy debt burden,the poor liquidity,the increased investment risk under rapid expansion,and the poor corporate income.Then,using the Z "model applicable to non manufacturing enterprises and the KMV model applicable to China’s listed real estate enterprises,this paper measures the bond default risk of Taihe Group,compares the Z" model with the improved KMV model,the default distance DD and the change process of credit rating respectively,and finds that the improved KMV model can more timely and effectively reveal the bond default risk and avoid it in advance for investors,Provide early warning methods for enterprises to identify risks in time.Finally,through the bond default event of Taihe Group,this paper provides relevant suggestions for investors,enterprises and market supervision and management departments to apply KMV model.