In order to adapt to China’s socialist market economy and balance the fiscal capacity between governments,the tax-sharing fiscal system came into being,and the central government has also stepped up its assistance to the central and western regions,especially the ethnic regions,which has effectively narrowed the gap between the equalization of public services and the eastern regions.However,From the 19 th National People’s Congress of China,China’s development dilemma has changed,The current transfer payment system has begun to be in a dilemma of powerlessness.The people’s needs for a better life are in urgent need of good public services.However,affected by the traditional “officer promotion championship”,the government still focuses its fiscal expenditure on economic construction,ignoring the importance of public services.At the same time,as the scale of transfer payment continues to expand,a series of management loopholes and use defects in actual resource allocation become more and more obvious,and the equalization effect of transfer payment in the field of public services need to be researched.In this regard,based on the practice of fiscal decentralization,combined with the existing research progress,this paper takes eight ethnic provinces and regions as the research objects,tries to analyze the equalization trend of transfer payments and its influencing factors under the background of fiscal decentralization,and explores the new direction of the development of the transfer payment system and public services.In this paper,taking the public service equalization index as the explanatory variable,the per capita transfer payment as the explanatory variable,and the fiscal decentralization as the intermediary variable,by taking the provincial panel data of 8ethnic provinces in 2007 to 2019,the weights of each index and dimension of public service equalization are first determined through principal component analysis,and the public service equalization measurement system of this paper is constructed,and the public service equalization index of each province and region is generated.Then,the effect of transfer payments on the equalization of regional public services is empirically tested by fixed effects and random effect regression,and the mediating role of fiscal decentralization between transfer payments and the equalization of public services,and the regulatory role of fiscal pressure and fiscal self-sufficiency in the equalization effect path of transfer payments are further verified.Through the analysis of the selected panel data,on the basis of controlling factors such as per capita GDP,population density,urbanization level,,it is found that transfer payment has played a good policy effect in promoting the equalization of public services,and fiscal decentralization has significantly mediated the transfer.The relationship between payment and the equalization of public services,and financial self-sufficiency and financial pressure have played a good role in the adjustment between transfer payments and equalization of public services.Further comparing the eight ethnic provinces and regions,we can find that the equalization effect of transfer payments in different ethnic provinces has certain differences.After conducting a multi-dimensional comparative analysis of transfer payment and public service equalization,it is found that different types of transfer payment have different effects on the equalization of public services,and at the same time,the effect of transfer payment on different types of public service equalization also shows differences,and the effect of transfer payment on ethnic areas is much higher than that in non-ethnic areas.In this regard,in the future,we can continue to implement the transfer payment policy and appropriately increase its transfer scale,and strengthen special transfer payments to ethnic areas.At the same time,local governments should optimize the fiscal decentralization policy,improve fiscal self-sufficiency,reduce fiscal pressure,and promote equalization of public services.Steady and healthy improvement of the level. |