Industry Superposition Mechanism Of Business Cycle And Its Correlation With Policy Cycle In China

In recent years,with the emergence of new characteristics of economic cycle fluctuations,the development trend of various industries in the national economic structure is seriously unbalanced.The engine of traditional industries is weakened,while emerging industries are booming.The traditional industries such as energy,mining,agriculture and forestry are slightly weak in the process of rising to the head of economic growth.In the basis of traditional business,banking,securities,real estate,Internet and other industries continue to introduce businesses and products that penetrate and cross each other,and the development trend of mixed business operation is becoming more and more obvious.From the point of policy background,the current our country macroeconomic regulation and control policy of the work has been upgraded from the traditional inverse cycle regulation for the "difference" in the macroeconomic across the cycle of planning design and adjustment,in the face of different industries in economic fluctuations play a role in the new form difference,the need to make macroeconomic policy control directional control and accurate short-term,mid-term and long-term target the specific arrangement.This article should be the economic cycle fluctuation change and the macroeconomic regulation and control policy guidance,further to explore the rule of industry economic cycle fluctuation characteristics and its associated with macroeconomic policy dynamics,this will not only help resolution spectrum characteristics of the economic cycle fluctuation regularity of different industries,and to promote stable macroeconomic health positive development also has important practical significance and application value.In view of this,following the strict logic of thinking from qualitative analysis to quantitative research,this paper conducts series of empirical analysis on the industry superposition mechanism of China’s economic cycle and its dynamic correlation with the policy cycle,which not only helps us better understand the behavior characteristics of economic cycle fluctuations under the new normal economy.Moreover,it can provide useful theoretical support and empirical basis for improving the effect of fiscal and monetary policy on macroeconomic regulation.Firstly,to better describe economic cycle fluctuations in the new period the characteristics of long wave and the composite properties,using the continuous wavelet transform method,this paper explores the economic cycle fluctuation characteristics and various industries in China superposition of different frequency wave components in the field of mechanism,examine the different frequency domain,the economic cycle and dynamic interaction of the policy cycle.The research shows that the economic cycle is formed by the superposition and resonance of fluctuation components of different frequencies,and the main cycle fluctuation of about 4 years is mainly driven by the combination of industry,agriculture,construction,finance and real estate.During the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 epidemic,the short cycle fluctuation of about 2 years is relatively prominent and mainly driven by the wholesale and retail industry,accommodation and catering industry and transportation industry.Secondly,based on the intuitive investigation of the dependent correlation between economic policy cycle and economic cycle,this paper further describes the dynamic correlation mechanism between economic cycle and economic policy cycle based on the time-frequency double dimension.The results show that the transmission path of fiscal policy cycle to economic cycle is mainly concentrated in the low-frequency short-term channel.The feedback mechanism of monetary policy cycle to economic cycle is mainly reflected in high frequency medium and long term effect.In contrast,the spillover of the economic cycle to the economic policy cycle is derived from low-frequency and long-cycle fluctuations.This research conclusion also provides a series of direction guidance and policy reference for improving the orientation and precision characteristics of macroeconomic regulation policies from the perspective of frequency domain.This paper carries out series of empirical econometric studies on the above key issues and obtains a lot of empirical basis and policy enlightenment.This paper argues that coordinated use of various macro-control policies to implement targeted and precise regulation of different industries in the new era,and effective design of short-term and medium and long-term target combination of macro-control are not only beneficial supplements to the existing theoretical research on policy regulation.It can also provide useful experience and enlightenment for optimizing the counter-cyclical regulation effectiveness of China’s macroeconomic policies and improving the cross-cycle design and regulation mechanism of macroeconomic policies.