Digital Inclusive Finance And Household Vulnerability To Poverty

The Sixth Plenary Session of the 19 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China pointed out that the success of China’s fight against poverty shows that the problem of absolute poverty that has plagued the Chinese nation for thousands of years has made historic achievements.However,how to prevent and deal with family poverty or return to poverty again is still a problem that can not be ignored at this stage.Vulnerability of poverty is a forward-looking indicator,and this study is helpful to know the poverty dynamics of microfamily units in advance,so as to make better prediction and response.In recent years,digital inclusive finance has developed rapidly,with considerable growth rate,which can improve the accessibility of financial services.At present,most studies have shown that digital inclusive finance can break through the time and space limitations of traditional physical outlets,reduce the service risks and costs of financial institutions,and better alleviate the poverty problem.H owever,it is still a question that needs to be clear how much poverty alleviation effect digital inclusive finance can bring to micro-family units and whether it can really achieve the goal of reducing poverty vulnerability of families.First of all,based on the definition of relevant categories,this paper makes a theoretical analysis by combing and summarizing the existing literature and according to the actual situation of domestic development at this stage.Then,combined with the Peking University Digital inclusive finance Index and the statistical data of CHFS 2017,the three-stage generalized least squares method(FGLS)is used to measure the forward-looking index of poverty vulnerability,and the variables at the three levels of household head,family and region are controlled.With the method of combining Probit and Tobit,the influence of digital inclusive finance and its sub-dimensions on the possibility of families falling into poverty in China is analyzed,and the heterogeneous influence and existing mechanism of sub-samples from different angles are further analyzed.This paper can draw the following conclusions:(1)Digital inclusive finance has a significant negative correlation with family poverty vulnerability.(2)In its sub-dimension,coverage has the most obvious influence on poverty vulnerability.(3)Digital inclusive finance has a more significant impact on families in poverty-stricken counties and families with relatively low assets.(4)Digital inclusive finance mainly reduces the vulnerability of family poverty by promoting family entrepreneurship,improving family medical security level,improving family financial literacy and easing credit constraints.Finally,this paper tests the robustness of the empirical results by expanding t he hierarchical index of digital inclusive finance index,instrumental variable method,transforming the empirical model and transforming the explained variables.Finally,this paper combines theoretical analysis and empirical research with current practical problems,and puts forward some suggestions for government departments and financial institutions.For the government,it is necessary to strengthen the popularization and education of financial knowledge,improve the financial literacy of residents,and strengthen the construction and improvement of personal credit system and related supervision system.For financial institutions,it is necessary to promote the deep integration of financial products and services with digital technology.In addition,we will guide financial institutions to increase loans and investment support to new areas of rural new industries such as rural e-commerce and smart agricultural products,provide services to small and medium-sized enterprises,low-income and other socially disadvantaged groups,and strengthen the comprehensive and in-depth development of digital finance.