Research On The Multidimensional Influencing Factors Of International Crude Oil Prices

The role of crude oil has become increasingly prominent after the Second World War.It not only affects people’s daily life,but also represents a country’s economic strength and military power.After the reform and opening up,my country’s economy has developed rapidly,but with the continuous rise of the economy,the problem of insufficient supply of crude oil in my country has been exposed.In order to support the development of the economy,my country needs to import a large amount of crude oil.The changes in oil prices have a significant impact on my country’s economic operation.At the same time,the development of alternative energy sources and the financialization of crude oil has made crude oil pricing more and more complicated,the influencing factors are complicated and the uncertainty is increased.How to correctly and reasonably understand the factors affecting the fluctuation of crude oil prices among hundreds of potential influencing factors has become a relatively popular topics.Since the fluctuation of crude oil price will have an impact on my country to a certain extent,the research on this topic can enrich the research on the factors affecting crude oil price in theory,and on the other hand,it can help the relevant crude oil in my country in reality.Manufacturers understand the influencing factors of crude oil prices,thereby reducing the risks brought by oil price fluctuations,and also hope to help the government formulate relevant energy policies.On the subject of screening the influencing factors of crude oil prices,a large number of models use traditional linear econometric models,but traditional linear econometric models have limited explanatory power for explained variables in high-dimensional data,resulting in low model efficiency.Then Robert Tibshirani proposed that the LASSO model can solve this problem by compressing the variable coefficients,but the high compressibility of the LASSO model is easy to miss the influencing factors with high correlation to the explanatory variables.Since the double-selection LASSO can take into account the factors ignored by the LASSO model through two-step LASSO regression,and thus can solve the problem of missing variables,this paper uses the double-selection LASSO to study the factors that affect the price of crude oil.After comparing the screening factor capabilities of the most typical OLS model,single-selection LASSO model and double-selection LASSO model in linear regression,this paper finds that the double-selection LASSO model can deal with the missing variable problem of the single-selection LASSO model,and can also solve the problem of the OLS model in high The non-Gaussian problem of random errors in dimensional data and the multicollinearity problem are significantly reduced,and the effect of screening factors is better.The research object of this paper is WTI crude oil price,which can be used as the benchmark price of the world crude oil market.Due to the limitations of traditional linear measurement models,there are few influencing factors in a large number of literature studies.This paper increases the number of influencing factors to 126,a multi-dimensional and comprehensive research Potential main influencing factors of crude oil prices,and focus on the analysis of13 potential influencing factors.Through the empirical results of the double-select LASSO model,three conclusions are drawn: the first is that the CIF price and FOB price of crude oil in OPEC countries have greater influence on crude oil prices than those in non-OPEC countries.In terms of cost,OPEC countries are still the main force affecting the fluctuation of crude oil prices.The second is that the ending inventory of non-SPR crude oil has a significant negative correlation with crude oil prices and has a significant impact in non-economic crisis periods.The third is that there is some controversy about whether the price of gold significantly affects the price of crude oil.The empirical results of this paper support that the price of gold does not significantly affect the price of crude oil.April 20,2020 was an unforgettable day.The May futures contract of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to a negative price.This was the first time that crude oil futures had a negative value after trading.The United States and other countries have caused serious impacts.A large number of oil companies are heavily indebted and are facing bankruptcy.At the same time,upstream,midstream and downstream companies related to crude oil have also suffered a greater impact.Due to the serious impact of this event,this paper will also take "inventory",the direct influencing factor of the "negative oil price" event,as a potential main factor,and based on the empirical results,it is found that the inventory and the price of international crude oil have a reverse impact.The“negative oil price” incident provides data support,and based on the in-depth analysis of “inventory”,it is found that the long-term binding relationship between crude oil and the US dollar accelerates the international development of WTI crude oil prices.The delivery method of crude oil is physical delivery,which further increases the risk of inventory impact on crude oil prices.