Research On Bond Market Deviation From The Perspective Of Thematic Bonds

Fair pricing of China’s bond issuance is the basis for promoting the marketization of the bond market,and a reasonable issuance price should be based on the market price.In the real world,the price of bonds changes immediately after listing,that is,the primary and secondary valuations are different.Thematic bonds have not developed for a long time in China,and there are multiple problems such as excessive packaging,insufficient information disclosure,and limited policy incentives.To sum up,from the perspective of thematic bonds,this paper studies the valuation deviation of the bond market.Utilizing enterprise bonds and corporate bonds issued from 2016 to 2020 as samples,this paper explores whether thematic bonds have a greater negative valuation deviation and the reasons behind it.Conclusions are as followed.First,compared with non-thematic bonds,thematic bonds are more prone to negative valuation deviations,indicating that the issuance pricing does not fully reflect the risks.Second,by exploring the reasons for the valuation deviation,it is found that,in terms of underwriters,bonds underwritten by single underwriters,low-reputation underwriters,and IPO underwriters have greater negative valuation deviations,and underwriting independence is important to ensure fairness of issuance pricing.In terms of bond characteristics,guarantees and the four major audits have insurance value,which can effectively alleviate ex-post information asymmetry and reduce the negative valuation deviation of thematic bonds.In terms of the issuance process,thematic bonds with low subscription participation,small price divergence,and bid-winning features show a larger negative valuation deviation,indicating that the issuance mechanism is not perfect,and there is price lock phenomenon.In terms of macro environment,when monetary is easing or economic growth is high,the pricing of thematic bonds tends to be "overly optimistic",and the negative valuation deviation is greater.The fact that the pricing of thematic bonds cannot reflect the actual risks suggests that special mechanisms should be carried out in terms of risk assessment and information disclosure according to the characteristics of thematic bonds.By discussing the valuation deviation of thematic bonds,this paper enriches the empirical research on the pricing of thematic bonds,which helps to standardize the thematic bond market,effectively protects the rights and interests of investors,and promotes diversified capital market of China.