Research On The Influence Of Resident Leverage On Economic Growth

After the subprime mortgage crisis,China’s residents’ leverage ratio has gradually increased since then.In order to reduce the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China’s economic operation,China’s government departments have successively implemented a series of policies to promote economic operation and adopted relatively loose fiscal and monetary policies to reduce the impact of the crisis.At the same time,the residents’ leverage ratio is increasing,showing a trend of regionalization on the whole.The leverage ratio of residents’ departments in some areas is in a high position,and has also caused some squeezing effect on consumption.Residents’ leverage ratio within a reasonable range can improve the happiness level of families and enable families to obtain funds in advance for consumption.Excessive residents’ sector leverage ratio will put more pressure on families.Based on this,the research can provide reference for effectively preventing and controlling the possible risks caused by the increase of residents’ leverage ratio,improve the welfare level of families,reduce the living pressure of residents,and provide reference for whether residents should increase leverage to drive economic growth.The article is divided into six parts.Firstly,it explains the background and significance of the topic,and summarizes the research results of relevant scholars;Secondly,the debt level of household sector in the proportion of regional GDP is selected as the calculation method of resident sector leverage ratio,and the current situation of resident leverage ratio is analyzed in detail;At the same time,in the theoretical analysis,based on the life cycle hypothesis,debt tightening theory and liquidity constraints,this paper analyzes the impact of residents’ leverage on economic growth through the effect of consumption and real estate.Thirdly,three regression equations are constructed in the empirical analysis,which are divided into the central and eastern regions to test respectively,and the effect of residents’ leverage in economic growth is empirically analyzed;Add the interactive term of resident sector leverage to study whether there may be a certain nonlinear relationship between them;And construct mediation effect model and regulation effect model respectively.The empirical conclusions are as follows:(1)the increase of residents’ leverage ratio will inhibit economic growth,and there is a nonlinear relationship between them;And construct mediation effect model and regulation effect model respectively.The sub sample empirical test shows that the rise of household sector leverage will have a certain negative effect on the economic growth of the East and the West;(2)the leverage ratio of residents will not be conducive to the growth of industrial added value.High leverage will easily generate bubbles and squeeze the real economy,which will further negatively affect economic growth.(3)The increase in the growth rate of per capita consumption expenditure helps to curb the negative impact of residents’ leverage on the economic growth rate,and the increase in the growth rate of commercial housing sales will aggravate the negative impact of residents’ leverage on the economic growth rate.Finally,combined with the empirical analysis of the different effects of residents’ leverage on economic growth,this paper puts forward to strengthen the supervision of Internet platform and guard against the invisible rise of residents’ leverage;Improve the income level of residents and improve the social security system;Give full play to the role of consumer credit and promote consumption upgrading;Implement differentiated regulation policies and other suggestions.