| To further protect natural forests,China stopped commercial logging in natural forests on April 1,2015.The implementation of this policy makes the supply of domestic hardwood lumber decrease sharply,and increases the dependence of domestic lumber processing enterprises on imported hardwood lumber.The price changes of imported hardwood lumber and related price changes of imported hardwood lumber will have a profound impact on the competition pattern and consumption situation of domestic lumber processing industry.The substitution of timber and the gap of market power of hardwood lumber between importers and exporters may lead to asymmetric price transmission.Foreign exporters expect that the price of imported hardwood lumber will continue to rise due to the sharp decrease of domestic hardwood lumber and higher import dependence caused by the policy of banning commercial harvesting of natural forests.The impact of policy implementation may further widen the unbalanced gap in market power and intensify the asymmetric price transmission among China’s imports of hardwood lumber.Based on the above analysis,it is assumed that there may be an asymmetry in the price transmission of imported hardwood lumber in China,and that the asymmetry of price transmission of imported hardwood lumber in China may be intensified after the implementation of the natural forest commercial logging ban.This paper will enrich the research on price transmission in the field of forest products,fill in the blank of the research on price transmission of forest products under the background of the natural forest commercial logging ban.In practice,this paper can provide reference for government departments to evaluate this policy and supplement the relevant trade policy,and help wood trading enterprises to make some appropriate production management decisions.This paper selects daily price data of hardwood lumber imported from China from 2011 to 2019 for empirical research.According to the price trend chart and structural break point detection,June 1,2015 was selected as the structural break point.The total time interval was divided into two sub-intervals,and the stability,cointegration and causal characteristics of the price series were further studied.In each interval,this paper uses the threshold cointegration model and the threshold error correction model to explore the long and short term price transmission of multiple price combinations.The results show that there are asymmetric price transmission relations in all the intervals of the four price combinations,which is embodied that the negative deviation price transmission speed is far greater than the positive deviation price transmission speed in each interval of all price combinations.It is found that the asymmetry of price transmission is intensified by comparing the two research subintervals.The adjustment speed of negative price deviation in the first interval of all combinations is smaller than that in the second interval,which indicates that the asymmetry of price transmission of hardwood lumber in the latter interval is greater than that in the former interval,which verifies the hypothesis.The following welfare analysis reveals that,compared with the symmetric price transmission,the Chinese timber importers obtained less than the normal amount of trade benefits from the asymmetric price transmission,and were in a disadvantageous position of welfare distribution.However,the implementation of the ban on commercial logging of natural forests makes the welfare distribution gap between importers and exporters bigger,and Chinese timber importers get less trade welfare from it.Therefore,this paper puts forward some suggestions to further alleviate the difficulties faced by China’s hardwood lumber import trade. |
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