Policy Uncertainty And The Efficiency Of Commercial Banks

The banking industry is at the core of the financial industry,and the continuous improvement of the operating efficiency of commercial banks is the internal power to promote the development of the banking industry.In order to cope with the new order of domestic and foreign capital markets,it is crucial to optimize the allocation of financial resources,promote the sustainable development of the banking industry,and further improve the operation and management efficiency of commercial banks.However,in recent years,China’s macroeconomic environment is not optimistic.Economic growth is slowing down,downward pressure is increasing,and the frequent occurrence of various black swan events has led to increasing economic policy uncertainties.In this case,the economic policy uncertainty is significantly affecting the commercial bank as a financial intermediary through various channels.With the gradual increase of economic policy uncertainty,the financial risks faced by financial institutions also continue to rise.China’s financial regulatory authorities are fully aware of the importance of strengthening the macro-prudential supervision of commercial banks,and gradually implement the relatively strict prudential supervision requirements to ensure that commercial banks carry out various business activities in a relatively stable environment.In this context,this paper deeply discusses the impact of Chinese economic policy uncertainty on the efficiency of commercial banks,and further analyzes the effectiveness of macro-prudential policy tools.First,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the influence mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on bank efficiency.Subsequently,the three-stage DEA model was used to calculate and analyze the efficiency value of 68 Chinese commercial banks with relatively complete annual data from 2011 to 2020.Secondly,the intermediary effect model and Tobit model were used to analyze the action mechanism and influence degree of economic policy uncertainty on the efficiency of commercial banks,and 68 commercial banks were grouped to analyze the different impact of economic policy uncertainty on the efficiency of different types of banks.Finally,the macro-prudential policy tool model is used to test whether the macro-prudential policy tool is reasonable and effective and put forward the corresponding policy suggestions.lt provides new ideas for the transformation and upgrading of commercial banks’ business model,puts forward new ideas for the policy promulgation and tool implementation of the government and regulatory authorities,thus promoting the operation efficiency of commercial banks,and is committed to better serving the needs of the real economy.The results show:first,empirical regression found that economic policy uncertainty will have a negative impact on the efficiency of commercial banks.At the same time,it is found that both the profitability and the risk bearing level of banks play a partial intermediary role,that is,the economic policy uncertainty will have a significant impact on the efficiency level of banks by affecting the profitability and risk bearing level of commercial banks.Second,through the heterogeneity analysis,the efficiency level of regional commercial banks is more significantly inhibited by the economic policy uncertainty than by the national commercial banks.Third,the research based on the regulatory effect of macro-prudential policy tools found that the use of macro-prudential policy tools will not only have a direct promoting effect on the improvement of bank efficiency,but also have a negative adjustment effect,which can significantly reduce the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on the efficiency of commercial banks.