Design Of Wheat Risk Zoning And Revenue Insurance In Shandong Province

Wheat is one of the three major food crops in China,ensuring the production of wheat is indispensable for the smooth operation of national economy and national food security.Shandong Province is the main producer of wheat and wheat is also a very important grain crop in Shandong Province.However,wheat production activities are easily affected by natural disasters and often face the risk of catastrophe,but market-oriented commercial insurance can not effectively deal with it.Therefore,China began to pilot the policy implementation of direct materialized cost insurance of three major grain crops from 2007.In 2018,the pilot "three major grain crops full cost insurance and revenue insurance" was proposed,and four counties and cities in Shandong Province were included in the pilot list.From 2019 to 2021,China will continue to push forward the trials of full cost insurance and revenue insurance for rice,wheat and corn.It is required to realize full cost insurance and planting revenue insurance for the three major grain crops,and fully cover the major grain-producing counties in major provinces by 2022.However,the insurance rates of direct materialized cost and full materialized cost implemented in the current period are relatively rough,the protection level is low,farmers’ enthusiasm for insurance is not high,and the operation of insurance companies is relatively extensive.The fundamental reason is that the current insurance policy does not take into account the risk differences between different wheat planting areas.Risk area division is to conduct scientific risk assessment for different wheat planting regions,and then implement differentiated and refined rate determination,so as to effectively avoid the occurrence of adverse selection.At the same time,as an agricultural insurance product that guarantees both price and output,revenue insurance can effectively solve the shortage of demand caused by the lack of security,so as to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain and ensure the realization of "food security strategy" in Shandong Province and even the whole country.Therefore,this paper carries out a study on wheat income insurance in Shandong Province based on risk zoning to provide technical support and theoretical basis for the implementation of income insurance.Firstly,this paper analyzes the important position of wheat in Shandong Province in the national wheat production and the situation of natural disasters in Shandong Province,and further explains the necessity of developing wheat risk zoning and revenue insurance of wheat.Then,six indexes including variation coefficient of yield per unit,frequency of disaster,yield reduction rate due to disaster,production specialization level,relative level of yield per unit and net per capita income of farmers were selected to divide wheat risk at county and district level in Shandong Province by cluster analysis.The wheat production regions at county level in Shandong Province were divided into five regions:low risk area,second low risk area,medium risk area,second high risk area and high risk area.Then collect the wheat futures price data,calculate the wheat yield data of each region after risk zoning,de trend and standardize it,then use the nonparametric kernel density method to calculate the treated wheat yield and price fluctuation distribution,and select the optimal copula function to determine the joint distribution function of wheat prices and yields.Then Monte Carlo simulation was applied to obtain simulated income data.Finally,the wheat revenue insurance premium rate of each risk area in Shandong Province is calculated according to the rate determination formula.The results show that under 100%guarantee level,the net rate of wheat income insurance in Shandong province ranges from 2%-4%and the gross rate ranges from 3%-5%.As well as at the same coverage level,the rates in the higher risk level areas are higher than the lower risk level areas,and the rates differ more significantly between the different risk areas.