Research On Centralized Bulk Purchase Of Drugs And Concentration Of Pharmaceutical Industr

The medical problem is an urgent problem.The problem of China’s pharmaceutical industry is that almost all pharmaceutical companies do not have the production capacity of original drugs,and all of them produce generic drugs.The price of generic drugs produced in China is generally high,and high generic drugs take up most of the resources of medical insurance.Recently,the national policies to protect people’s access to medical care,the pressure on medical insurance funds has gradually increased,and some places have even experienced a shortfall in medical insurance funds.In order to reduce the price of generic drugs and ease the pressure on medical insurance,the state released the ”4+7 cities” drug centralized quantity procurement policy at the end of 2018.with the goal of reducing the inflated drug prices,alleviating the burden of patients’ medication,and effectively solving the problem of expensive medical care,the policy results benefit the people.This centralized quantity procurement policy is an important innovation in the medical industry,reducing the transaction costs of drug manufacturers and sellers,and creating a favorable business environment for medicine,which may have an impact on the development of the pharmaceutical industry.In order to explore the impact of this pharmaceutical policy on the pharmaceutical industry,this paper examines the impact on the concentration of the pharmaceutical industry and makes suggestions for the future development of the centralized quantity purchasing policy to stabilize the pharmaceutical market.In this paper,we firstly sort out the impact of centralized quantity purchasing policy on patients,hospitals and pharmaceutical industry,analyze the mechanism of impact on the concentration of pharmaceutical industry,and study the impact mechanism of centralized quantity purchasing policy on the concentration of pharmaceutical industry from three aspects,namely,enterprise scale,market volume and market entry barrier.Then,using the data related to the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry from 2000-2020 as the sample,the Adaptive-Lasso method is used to select variables for the factors affecting the concentration of pharmaceutical industry in China,and the results are compared with the results of stepwise regression and Lasso variable selection.Finally,by comparing different models through fitting analysis of data from 2000-2018,the grey neural network model with better prediction effect is used to forecast the concentration of pharmaceutical industry in 2019 and2020.The prediction results are analyzed,and then difference-in-differences model is developed to study the impact of the centralized quantity purchasing policy on the concentration of the pharmaceutical industry.The study shows that the economy of scale,product differentiation rate,the growth rate of market volume,the proportion of foreign enterprises and industrial policy affect the concentration of pharmaceutical industry to some extent.Comparing the results of GM(1,1),NSGM(1,N)and gray neural network models,it is obvious that the gray neural network model has the highest prediction accuracy and the best fit for the concentration of pharmaceutical industry.Based on the gray neural network model to predict the concentration of the pharmaceutical industry,it is find that the actual values in 2019 and 2020 are significantly higher than the predicted values,which empirically proves that the concentration of pharmaceutical industry is indeed influenced by the centralized drug banding policy implemented by the state.Based on the current development of China’s pharmaceutical industry market,we propose relevant recommendations.Pharmaceutical companies should focus on drug development and ensure the production of generic drugs through drug consistency evaluation.The government should establish drug price rules and strengthen the normalization supervision of drug prices.The centralized quantity procurement policy is being promoted on a regular basis to promote the long-term development of the pharmaceutical industry market.