| According to WTO data,as of 2017,China’s merchandise export volume ranks first in the world,accounting for 12.8%of the world’s total export volume,and its import volume is second in the world,accounting for 10.2%of the total import volume.Apparently,the development of trade and flow of capital act as the important channel of transition of China’s fluctuation.The theme of this paper is to study the impact of fluctuation of China’s economy to the 6 surrounding countries,meanwhile,this paper will discuss the channel to shock.The affection of China to Asian countries is much different among world other countries,which is from these aspects below:1.Geographically Asian countries are near China;2.Integration is speeding up among these countries;3.China has comparative advantage on labor-intense goods,and is converting to high tech goods;4.Since China acts as‘world factory’,it needs importing large amount of middle goods,exporting terminal goods;5.Asian countries are in different development era,so they are all competitive to China in different aspects.So,studying the reaction of Asian countries,especially the countries surrounding China to China’s fluctuation is a question.All the countries this paper choose is based on the fact that China is all these countries’biggest trade partner,and the proportion of the aggregate volume of trade with China is about 20%.So the effect of spillover of Chinese economy can be well detected.The innovation of this article is to first use the GVAR(global VAR)model to describe the dynamic impact of China’s economic fluctuations on neighboring countries,and then use panel regression to explore the channels through which China affects neighboring countries.The previous articles focused more on the spillover effects of China’s economy and did not discuss the specific impact channels in depth.The research in this paper finds that:1.After receiving a unit of positive impact on China,the GDP of the four developing countries in the article will rise by more than 1%in the short term,while the growth of the two developed economies in South Korea and Japan is less than 0.9%;2.The response of countries to the shock of China’s GDP is greater than that of China’s monetary policy.3.China’s influence on neighboring countries mainly impacts through import channels.Each additional unit of China’s imports will cause the GDP of each country to increase by 1%. |
