| In today’s ever-changing world,for the sake of economic development,the state supports and promotes the development of private economy of various scales,and especially pays more attention to the development of small and micro enterprises.Small and micro enterprises play an important role in promoting the development of China’s private economy,but also shoulder important tasks such as promoting employment,alleviating employment pressure,and pulling up national income.They are also an important foundational support for the development of large enterprises.Even so,due to the financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises,many risk issues have become major issues that have plagued the survival and health management of small and micro enterprises.As we all know,small and micro enterprises have many default risks due to many problems in their own development and the impact of the external environment.On the one hand,due to the small business scope of small and micro enterprises,their technical management is not in place and other internal factors;on the other hand,banking and other financial Institutions’ insufficient attention to small and micro enterprises,changes in macroeconomic policies,diversification of financing channels,and insufficient attention to credit policies have made small and micro enterprises face many default risk factors in the process of development and effective management.Therefore,how to establish a reasonable and effective credit assessment mechanism for small and micro enterprises is a problem that financial institutions such as commercial banks need to solve.This article will take Fuzhou Agricultural Business Case as a standpoint of bank and other financial institutions to analyze the default risk of small and micro enterprises.First of all,analyze the characteristics of the division of small and micro enterprises,identify the external reasons for the default risk of small and micro enterprises,and the small scale of the company,rising financing costs,fierce market competition,irregular operations,shortage of capital chain,etc.The internal cause of the company’s default risk;then,the analysis of the default risk of small and micro enterprises in Fuzhou.This study will use the bank loan business elements to take the data of Fuzhou Rural Commercial Bank as an example to establish a logistic regression analysis model to identify the impact factors of default risk of small and micro enterprises in Fuzhou,and empirically analyze the impact factors of default risk of small and micro enterprises.What factors have a significant impact on the default risk of small and micro enterprises,and come to the corresponding conclusions;Finally,provide appropriate prevention and control countermeasures and recommendations for the default risk of small and micro enterprises in Fuzhou,for rural commercial banks to breach of contract for small and micro enterprises.Risk prevention is given a certain reference.This study will use the bank loan business elements to select the six credit element characteristics of the data obtained from the transaction:enterprise size,registered capital currency,registered capital,loan type,guarantee method,and loan orientation.Using Logistic regression analysis model,the data analysis of Fuzhou Rural Commercial Bank was used to analyze the factors that could affect the default risk of small and micro enterprises.Finally,it is concluded that the three factors,namely,the size of the company,registered capital,and loan investment,can most effectively affect the default risk of the company.The scale of the company’s operations is large,and its credit default risk will become smaller;for companies with large registered capital,the credit default risk will be lower,and the probability of default risk in agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery is higher than other industries in the sample.However,the three factors of the registered currency,the guarantee method and the loan variety have no significant effect on the default risk of the company.Therefore,it is recommended that banks and other financial institutions pay attention to the scale of loan companies,their own registered capital,and the direction of loans to influence these factors that affect corporate credit,thereby reducing the risk of loan default. |
