The Economic Effect Of The United States Semiconductor Export Control To China

In 2015,China put forward the "made in China 2025" plan,in which it is necessary to vigorously develop domestic semiconductor materials and equipment and realize the plan of 75% semiconductor localization rate.Since then,the United States has carried out a series of crackdowns on China’s semiconductor industry on the grounds of "national security",and issued the export control reform act in 2018 to strengthen the export control of China’s semiconductor products and technologies,aiming to curb the development of China’s semiconductor industry.In 2021,the Biden administration continued U.S.regulations on semiconductors in China,and even going so far as to prevent Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE,which the U.S.government viewed as security threats,from obtaining licenses for new equipment from U.S.regulators.Although the U.S.semiconductor export control policy against China has brought some disturbance to the economic development of China,will the U.S.be able to realize its plan to contain China?Is it necessarily good for America? And how does that affect the rest of the world economy? All these questions remain to be scientifically analyzed.On the basis of summarizing and sorting out the previous literature research,this paper uses the multi-regional input-output table industry splitting method to split the electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing industry in ADB-MRIO into semiconductor industry and non-semiconductor industry in 2019.Based on the input-output model,this paper uses the hypothesis extraction method and hypothesis expansion method to simulate and analyze the impact of U.S.semiconductor export control on China on domestic and foreign economy.Through the analysis of the economic effects of US semiconductor export control to China,it is found that if China does not increase the substitution of domestic semiconductors,different degrees of export control measures will damage the economies of China and the United States,while Japan,South Korea and European countries will benefit from export control.If China has an increase in domestic semiconductor substitution,the United States will suffer the most,and China will avoid negative impact in export control.The empirical results show that the loss suffered by the United States is greater than that of China.The maximum reduction of US GDP is 0.0124 ‰.However,China’s GDP will decrease by 0.00089 ‰ at most due to the existence of foreign import substitution.Japan,South Korea and European countries have benefited from US export controls on China because they have become China’s semiconductor import substitutes.The most affected industries in China are chemical products,metal products,wholesale,finance and non-semiconductor industries in electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing.Based on the analysis conclusion of this paper,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions from the two levels of government and enterprises.The countermeasures and suggestions at the government level mainly include three aspects.first,deepen international exchanges and implement high-level opening to the outside world;Second,strengthen the strength of science and technology and enhance the autonomy and controllability of the industrial chain;Third,optimize the policies for the introduction of scientific and technological talents and control the risks of the introduction of overseas talents.The countermeasures and suggestions at the enterprise level mainly include three aspects,first,enhance the enterprise’s scientific and technological R&D ability and optimize the product import channels;Second,establish a risk early warning mechanism to clarify the scope of the enterprise’s own difficulties;Third,do a good job in export control compliance and strengthen the review of compliant transactions.