Research On The Market Outlook Sentiment Of Funds And Related Investment Behavior

Research on fund managers at home and abroad is quite rich,from background indicators such as academic qualifications,gender,and professionalism to style analysis and evaluation indicators such as style coefficient,turnover rate,and even newer ones such as overconfidence indicators.There are relatively few documents on the analysis of text data released by fund managers based on natural language processing technology,and related professional domain dictionaries are also relatively scarce.A total of 300,000 pieces of market outlook text data in the regular reports of China’s full market funds from 2009 to 2019 are selected here.After using SO-PMI,Word2vec algorithm and manual screening methods,it is a professional field for the text-specific dictionary.The construction of the dictionary provides certain convenience and exploration for similar research.Based on this dictionary,this paper uses an improved sentiment calculation method to extract the sentiment possibilities of partial equity funds in China’s public fund market from 2009 to 2019 to reveal the market outlook text.Through the regression model of unbalanced panel data,the predictive relationship between the orientation of the market outlook text in the fund announcement and the fund investment behavior is explored.The empirical results show that:within the quarter before and after the release of the market outlook,fund managers with relatively active sentiment orientation towards the market outlook will increase the risk of their investment portfolios to a certain extent in order to fight for more.Individuals with relatively negative prospects will reduce the Beta of their portfolios to avoid risks;at the same time,their positive sentiment towards industries and trends is to a certain extent in terms of stock selection ability,excess income Alpha acquisition ability,and the improvement of information ratio It is confirmed that there is no significant correlation between the timing ability and the emotional orientation;from the perspective of fund holders,the emotional orientation of fund managers will affect their investment behavior to a certain extent,which is embodied in investors’ preference for holding more funds with relatively positive emotion.This article brings another perspective to mutual funds’ investment and research.