Market Sentiment,Media Sentiment And Housing Price Volatility

As a pillar industry supporting China’s economic development,the steady operation of the real estate industry is very important.According to the 2021 central government report,we should continue to keep housing prices stable,stabilize land prices,and stabilize expectations.Therefore,it is of great significance for China to explore the causes of price fluctuations in the real estate market and maintain the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.With the deepening of research,more and more scholars have introduced social psychological factors such as market sentiment into the study of housing price fluctuations.In view of this,this paper studies the influence of real estate market sentiment,media sentiment and housing price fluctuation from the perspective of behavioral finance.First of all,the decisions of different market participants largely determine the trend of housing prices,and the expectations and emotions of market participants are important factors that promote market participants to make behavioral decisions.Therefore,from the above viewpoint,this article is based on our country from 2009 to2019,35 large and medium cities quarterly data,by using principal component analysis(pca)to build the market sentiment index,from the real estate market,property buyers,developers,government and financial institutions to market sentiment five perspective,research on the fluctuations in the prices of market sentiment.Secondly,the real estate market is characterized by typical information asymmetry and incompleteness.Most market participants rely on mass media as the source of information.Therefore,media reports will change the decision-making behaviors of market participants by influencing their expectations of the market,thus exerting an impact on the real estate market.Based on the data of newspaper media,this paper establishes the media sentiment index and demonstrates its effect on market sentiment and housing price fluctuation by using the moderating effect.Finally,some policy suggestions are put forward.This paper draws the following conclusions: First,the positive expectation of the real estate market has a positive effect on the housing price.Among them,as the main body of real estate market transaction,the rise of market sentiment will promote the rise of housing price;Financial institutions’ better expectations for the real estate market will also prompt them to increase their investment in the real estate industry and effectively promote the rise of housing prices.Finally,there is a positive but insignificant correlation between government sentiment and housing price.Secondly,media sentiment can effectively affect the relationship between real estate market sentiment and housing price.When the real estate market sentiment rises,the rise of media sentiment can effectively restrain the positive effect of market sentiment on housing price.The same applies to home buyers,developers,governments and financial institutions.But because developers and the government have more information,the impact of media coverage is not significant.