| Similar to the steam engine,the generator,the computer and the Internet are the hallmarks of the last three industrial revolutions,Artificial Intelligence(AI)also has the potential to drive industrial change and bring humanity into the age of intelligence.China’s 14 th Five-Year Plan proposes to target frontier areas such as artificial intelligence,implement major national science and technology projects,promote the integration of artificial intelligence and industry,and build an engine for the development of strategic emerging industries.In view of the problems of unclear pulse of China’s AI technology development and weak position in international competition,it is important to analyze the current situation of AI technology development,grasp the evolution of China’s AI technology and the gap with the major developed countries in the West from a macro perspective,for China to make technology layout,discover the shortcomings of AI technology and promote technological innovation in AI-related fields.In this paper,we first analyzed the current situation of AI technology,and from the perspective of patent technology theme,LDA theme model was employed to mine the implied technology theme in AI patents through Python programming based on Derwent Innovation Index.The trends in the number of global AI patents,the changes in patent fields,the tendency in the heat of technical topics on the timeline,and the evolution of technical subject terms over time were analyzed from three aspects:measurement analysis,the heat of technical topics,and the evolution of technical topic content;the development differences between China and European and American countries in the field of AI were analyzed by comparing the main R&D subjects of AI and national patent layouts.Moreover,in terms of AI technology evolution prediction,the results of social network method and LDA model were incorporated into the maturity evaluation index system,and a technology maturity index evaluation system based on patent data was constructed to evaluate the maturity of important AI technologies;from the perspective of combining direct and indirect,the patent evaluation index was combined with the patent quantity,and the revised patent quantity was proposed,and the S-curve model and life cycle theory were used to fit the revised patent quantity,and the maturity nodes and development trend of important AI technologies were predicted.Researches shows that:(1)The outbreak node of artificial intelligence was in2017,the maturity index of its important technologies is high and has reached a mature level.In the process of artificial intelligence maturity,the connection between enterprises is getting stronger,the proportion of process patents is gradually increasing,and the heterogeneity of patents shows a trend of rising first and then falling;(2)In the main body of research and development,unlike the United States and Europe mainly dominated by enterprises,China is dominated by enterprises and universities,and countries(regions)such as Europe and the United States have more foreign patent layouts than China,and China fails to occupy a dominant position in international competition;(3)Artificial intelligence technology has experienced a huge transition from the basic level of sensors,smart chips,algorithm models to voice recognition,image and video recognition,text recognition,deep learning and other technical levels and achieved to robotics,education,medical,security,driving and other intelligent applications.;(4)Important AI technologies such as image recognition,process execution,data analysis,speech recognition,and deep learning have all moved into the early stages of maturity and are predicted to decline or evolve in newer technology iterations in the future.Finally,based on the results of AI technology analysis and prediction,this paper proposes to promote the integration of AI technology and industry,build AI ecological system and strengthen independent innovation from the perspective of industry,ecology and innovation. |
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