Reasearch On The Influence Of Adjustment Of Birth Policy On The China’s Female Labor Supply

Under the background of accelerating population aging and vanishing window of opportunity of demographic dividend,adjusting population birth policy is a long-term and basic measure to increase labor supply.However,it is of great practical significance to study how to activate the existing labor stock,improve the labor participation rate,and form a short-term effective increase in labor supply for the stable transformation and subsequent healthy development of China’s economy.However,the reality of the fertility policy is cold,and even there is a trend of further decline in the number of births.For China,a large developing country with a high female labor participation rate,in addition to some studies focusing on the impact of family structure changes and care costs on female labor supply,there is no research to systematically test the impact of fertility policy adjustment on female labor supply,and the reasons for the decline in female labor supply in China need further investigation.From the perspective of fertility policy adaptation,this article examines the reasons for the decline in female labor supply and then suggests appropriate countermeasures.It not only contributes to fully playing the important role of women in the process of economic and social development,promotes equality of labor supply between men and women,but can also alleviate the misery of low fertility and gender imbalance.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of fertility policy adjustment on the quality of women’s labor supply.After sorting and analyzing the relevant domestic and foreign literature,based on China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data in 2014,2016 and 2018,the effect of adjusting China’s fertility policy on the labor supply of married women was estimated using the double difference model.This thesis uses the variables of "whether to participate in labor","working hours" and "wage income" to measure the quality of women’s labor supply,and examines the changes and causes of income and working time gaps after women in different birth cohorts choose whether to enter the labor market and after entering the labor market.In order to further explore the impact mechanism of the "comprehensive second child" policy on women’s labor participation,select the variable of "direct parenting cost",and verify the intermediary effect of parenting cost on the "comprehensive second child" policy and women’s labor supply through hierarchical regression.This perspective study helps us understand the impact mechanism of the comprehensive second child policy on women’s employment,and provides a new idea and perspective for further research on the relationship between the two.The results show that :(1)Policy effect has a significant negative impact on whether women participate in employment;(2)The policy effect has a significant negative impact on working hours;(3)Policy adjustment has a significant negative impact on women’s wages.At the same time,(4)according to the sample division of different education levels,the policy effect has a significant effect on the labor participation of women with different educational levels,among which the adjustment of the fertility policy has a greater negative impact on women with low educational levels;The adjustment of fertility policy has reduced the weekly working hours of women with low and middle education levels by about 4.403 hours,which is significant at the level of 1%.For the female group with higher education level,the impact of fertility policy adjustment on this group is still negative,but not significant;The adjustment of fertility policy has a significant negative impact on the wages of women with different education levels.(5)Nurturing costs play an intermediary role in the impact of the "comprehensive two child" policy on women’s labor supply.The "comprehensive second child" policy will significantly increase the family’s rearing cost,and the increase of "rearing cost" will significantly enhance women’s employment intention,which indicates that the existence of "rearing cost" masks the negative effect of the policy effect on women’s participation in employment.The variable of "parenting cost" reduces the significant relationship between the policy effect and the weekly working hours and wages of women’s labor.The positive indirect effect of parenting cost weakens the negative impact of the direct effect of the policy effect,which is specifically shown as the masking effect.The reverse side explains that the negative impact of the "all-round two child" policy on women’s weekly working hours and wages is actually stronger than the empirical results.By exploring the impact mechanism,we will put forward ideas and suggestions for ensuring women’s employment during the implementation of the "comprehensive two child" policy.Through the labor market policy,we will further strengthen employment equality,and use the national policy to improve fertility and promote employment to promote women’s employment.The following policy recommendations are put forward:(1)Strengthen the awareness of gender equality and build a friendly environment for women.(2)We will implement supporting measures to increase fertility.(3)We will improve policies and measures to ensure equal employment for women.(4)We will vigorously develop various childcare institutions to ease the pressure on families to raise children.(5)Develop and innovate the elderly care service model,and build a high-quality social security system.