Analysis On The Trend Of Age-specific Mortality In Provinces Based On The SVD-Comp Model

China has a vast territory,numerous ethnic groups,and uneven development of health resources and medical services.There are bound to be differences in the death status of the population in each province.However,the age-specific mortality rates of the population in various provinces can only be obtained through the census data,and the data are limited and discontinuous,which hinders the in-depth discussion of related research and analysis.At the same time,most of the mortality studies focus on the whole of China,and the conclusions can’t be directly applied to specific provinces.Therefore,if we can analyze the changing trend of mortality in each province,we can draw conclusions suitable for each province and formulate population policies suitable for each province.In order to gain an in-depth understanding of the changing laws of population mortality in various provinces,this paper was based on the three census data in 1990,2000 and 2010.First,the K-Means algorithm was used to cluster the death patterns in each province,and then it was divided into four types of provinces.With the mortality rate of children under 5 years old,the SVD-Comp model was used to estimate the population mortality rate by sex and age in each province from 1990 to 2013,and the data on the elderly population was adjusted,and finally the life expectancy of neonates by gender in diff erent regions was calculated.The results showed that,in terms of the trend of mortality,the mortality rates of male and female in all provinces have decreased year by year,but the average rate of decline in all age groups is not consistent across years.The rate of decrease in mortality was the smallest in 1990-1995,and the rate of decrease continued to increase in subsequent years,reached the maximum in2000-2005,and then entered a declining stage.The rate of decline is also inconsistent across age groups.Basically,the mortality rate for children under the age of 9 decreased the most,and the rate for the elderly over the age of 85 decreased the least.The inconsistency in the rate of decline among different age groups has led to horizontal fluctuations in mortality rates or changes in mortality patterns.Among them,there is a large gap in the decline rates among the 15-54 age groups of various mortality patterns,resulting in a widening gap between different mortality patterns year by year.The life expectancy of the population in each province of China has increased continuously during the study period,but the life expectancy did not increase at a uniform rate with each year,and there were differences in the growth trend of various provinces.The level of life expectancy shows a spatial pattern of "East-Central-West gradually decreasing",but the difference between provinces is shrinking.Female have higher life expectancy than male.The gender gap in life expectancy is initially small,then rapidly increases,and finally almost stagnates or even declines.The differences in life expectancy showed basically the same laws in terms of dynamic evolution,region and gender.They were greatly affected by the mortality of the 0 age group and the 55-84 age group.