Exploring The Influencing Factors Of First Marriage Based On Spatial Durbin Model And Logit Model

In recent years,the first marriage rate in our country has been declining continuously,from 23.56‰ in 2012 to 14.12‰ in 2019.The decline of the first marriage rate will lead to the chain reaction of fewer children and the acceleration of the aging process,in the background of the sharp decline of the birth population and the serious aging of our country,this article echoes the 2021 of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council in their decision on optimizing the birth policy and promoting long-term balanced population development to promote marriage and love at the right age,the purpose of this paper is to find out the factors that affect the first marriage and to make some suggestions to promote the first marriage level.This paper examines first marriage from both macrocosm and microcosm perspectives.Macro-level study of the impact of factors on the first marriage rate,spatial-temporal patterns,local Moran scatter plots and Lisa clustering plots of first marriage rates in2012,2014,2016,2018 and 2019 were constructed using Arcgis and Geoda Software,the first marriage rate of 30 provinces and cities in our country(except Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)has a positive spatial correlation,the Spatial Dubin model was found to have negative effects on the local first marriage rate,such as housing price,unemployment rate,years of education and the dependency ratio of the elderly The divorce rate also has a negative effect on the first marriage rate in the same area.The proportion of women has a positive effect on the first marriage rate in the same area,while the internet prevalence rate has a non-significant negative effect on the first marriage rate.At the micro level,the binary Logit model is used to study the factors that determine the first marriage decision of women aged 20-34 and men aged 22-36 who are in the fertile period,using data from the 2018 China household tracking survey(CFPS),this section first ran correlation and Multicollinearity tests to make sure there were no Multicollinearity in the model,after the total sample was regressed,the heterogeneity analysis was done to explore the difference between male and female.Finally,the method of substitution variable and substitution model was used to analyze the robustness of the model.The study found that: for people at the peak of fertility,men are less likely than women to enter into marriage;the difference between urban and rural areas has no significant effect on whether men and women enter into marriage;the higher the education level,the easier it is to get married;The more years of school-leaving,the less likely they are to get married,and the more years of school-leaving,the more likely they are to get married The healthier a woman is,the more likely she is to get married.Physical health has no effect on whether a man will get married or not.The more time a man spends on the internet,the less likely he is to get married,the time spent on the internet had a greater negative effect on women’s marriage than that of men,while men’s working hours had little effect on whether they got married,but the longer the working week,the less likely they were to get married The higher a man’s monthly income,the more likely he is to marry,while the higher a woman’s income,the less likely she is to marry.Finally,according to the research results,the text put forward the following four policy recommendations: firstly,we should lower the house price,popularize the common property right house and strengthen the management of the economical and suitable house,establish a sound housing security system and “Rent and purchase” supporting strategies,reduce the first home interest rate,so that the threshold of first marriage to lower.Secondly,we should pay more attention to the issue of youth employment,strengthen employment guidance,adjust the educational structure,promote short-term vocational education in secondary schools,shorten the academic system,implement a 10-year compulsory education system,and slow down the phenomenon of the delay in the age of first marriage.Then we need to curb overtime,adjust basic wages and tax rates,increase spending on public services,lower the cost of living,address pension and child care concerns,and make marriageable people“Want to get married”.Finally,to promote gender balance,optimize the network environment,strengthen marriage education,build a marriage-friendly environment,so that marriageable people “Dare to marry”.