Application Of Approximate Bayesian Method To Parameter Estimation Of Queuing Model

In our daily life,the queuing phenomenon is everywhere,with the rapid development of China’s economy,people’s consumption levels continue to rise,frequent consumption behavior,queuing in shopping malls,supermarkets and banks and other places can be seen everywhere.When we go to the supermarket to check out,go to the bank for business,or to the hospital to register to see a doctor and in the fast food restaurant to get food,etc.,in the number of customers is greater than the number of service personnel,there will be a queue phenomenon.Since the global population is huge and the resources for services in life are not endless,customers have to wait in line in order to receive services.Especially with the outbreak of pneumonia in 2019,regular full nucleic acid has made queues more prevalent,and queues are especially evident when the number of people testing is huge,time is tight,and the number of health care workers is limited.Or perhaps when a wave of outbreaks hits,there is a hoarding crisis and residents flock in large numbers to supermarkets to stand in long lines.Therefore,research is necessary to reduce the waiting time in line as well as to improve the quality of service,and at the same time,to optimize the number of service desks and reduce the cost of service providers while ensuring the quality of service.This paper focuses on call center queuing systems in banks.Call centers,which can also be called customer service centers,originated in the 1930 s.At first it was to transfer the user’s call to the answering service,then as the call center developed and the call volume increased,it began to establish an interactive call voice response system,which can mainly use machines to deal with some common customer problems and achieve self-service intelligent service.So far,call centers have been widely used in various fields such as banking,post and telecommunications,telecommunications,aviation,and insurance to achieve effective communication between customers and business and government.In a call center of a certain scale,too much staffing will increase the cost of the enterprise and staff idleness,while too little staffing will affect the quality of service,increase the work intensity of staff and thus cause staff turnover.Therefore,a reasonable arrangement of call center staffing and scheduling is very important.This paper first introduces the steps of approximate Bayesian estimation of parameters,and then applies them to the M/M/1 queuing model and the M/G/S queuing model,after which a dynamic queuing system is simulated,i.e.,the arrival rate of customers is not constant,and the number of manpower requirements at different time periods is calculated using the square root staffing formula based on the analysis of the simulated queuing system.Afterwards,using the call center as a realistic background,the approximate Bayesian approach is applied in conjunction with the queuing model.After analyzing the data,it is found that the arrival rate of customers is not constant,so the arrival rate is no longer considered as a constant,which makes the queuing model more realistic.The combination of statistical knowledge and computer simulation from the perspective of practical problems fully demonstrates the applicability and superiority of statistics in solving certain application problems,and at the same time,combined with the research of domestic and foreign scholars,for a specific call center system,the arrival rate of customers changes during the day for group discussion,respectively,to arrive at the optimal staffing The number of staff is further improved and optimized,which has certain practical significance.In this paper,we combine call center with queuing model and apply approximate Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of the model.The results show that there is great superiority in estimating the parameters of the queuing model with approximate Bayesian method,and the number of manpower demand is calculated for different time periods of call center using square root staffing formula,which has certain reference value for the manpower arrangement of call center managers.