Can The Development Of Digital Inclusive Finance Promote The Increase Of Fertility Intention

The aging of the population and the small number of children in the family are becoming the important characteristics of China’s population development.At this stage,the fertility desire of Chinese residents continues to be low,and the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing,resulting in the aging of the population,gender imbalance and other problems.For this reason,China has constantly introduced and adjusted relevant policies to encourage fertility,but has never been able to effectively improve the status of low fertility.Low fertility is bound to pose a huge threat and challenge to China’s long-term population strategy and economic and social development.It is of great practical significance to study how to improve residents’ fertility desire to promote long-term balanced population development and actively respond to the aging population strategy.As a combination of digital technology and finance,digital inclusive finance,while providing efficient and convenient financial products and services for all sectors of society,especially urban low-income groups,rural population,remote areas and other special groups that are not covered by the existing financial system,helps to increase family income,promote innovation and entrepreneurship,and create more jobs,and is to a large extent an important factor affecting residents’ willingness to have children.Therefore,can digital inclusive finance promote the increase of fertility desire?If there is an effect of increasing fertility willingness,what mechanism is supporting this effect?What are the differences of this effect under different conditions?Only by answering these questions can we make clear the role of digital inclusive finance in promoting the fertility of residents,so as to better deal with the imbalance of population age structure and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.This paper first combs the relevant literature on digital inclusive finance and residents’ fertility desire,introduces the development status and fertility status of digital inclusive finance in China,and on the basis of previous studies,carries out theoretical and mechanism analysis,and puts forward relevant assumptions.Then,using the city level data of Peking University’s digital inclusive finance index and the 2015 China Comprehensive Social Survey(CGSS)data,we empirically tested the correlation effect of the development of digital inclusive finance on residents’ fertility desire,and conducted a series of robustness and heterogeneity analysis.Finally,it further analyzes the mechanism of digital inclusive finance affecting residents’fertility desire.Based on the above research and analysis,relevant conclusions and policy recommendations are proposed.Through the analysis of the current situation,the development of digital inclusive finance in China has shown a rapid development trend,with low fertility intentions and declining birth rate.The empirical analysis draws the following basic conclusions:First,both the ordinary least squares method and the Ordered Probit method are used to draw the conclusion that the development of digital inclusive finance can significantly improve the fertility of residents,and the significance of the results passes a series of robustness tests.Secondly,through the heterogeneity analysis,the effect of digital inclusive finance development on residents’childbearing willingness is different in urban and rural areas,regions,gender,childbearing age,number of children born,education level and one-child,etc.The research results show that:the effect of digital inclusive finance development on the improvement of childbearing willingness is in rural areas,western regions,women,the childbearing age is 25-34 years old,the number of children born is 0 or 1 There were significant differences in the groups with low education level and only child parents.Third,the results of mechanism analysis show that improving flexible employment and reducing the cost of childbearing arc important channels for the development of digital inclusive finance to improve the willingness of residents to bear.The development of digital inclusive finance can promote flexible employment,improve residents’ income,promote the economic status of residents’ families,and provide time and income guarantee for residents’ childbearing.At the same time,the application of digital technology enables residents to obtain more affordable and convenient goods and services,enjoy more shared resources,reduce birth costs to a certain extent,reduce residents’ economic burden,and reduce residents’ worries about childbirth.This study provides useful policy implications for improving the childbearing willingness of people of childbearing age and promoting the long-term balanced development of the population.Compared with the existing literature,the contribution and innovation of this paper may be reflected in the following three aspects:First,this paper systematically studies the effect of digital inclusive finance on the improvement of residents’fertility desire,which broadens the research perspective of influencing factors of fertility desire in the digital economy era.Second,this paper uses ordinary least squares,Ordered Probit,tool variables and other methods to study,and verifies the rationality of the identification strategy in many aspects,thus ensuring the reliability of the research conclusions.Third,the heterogeneity and mechanism analysis of the development related effects of digital inclusive finance will help to provide decision-making support for improving the implementation effect of the fertility policy.