Research On The Space-time Heterogeneity Of The Impact Of Labor Mobility On Urban And Rural Poverty In China

Traditional Western theories believe that labor mobility can help raise income levels,alleviate poverty and narrow the gap between urban and rural areas.However,the large-scale outflow of rural labor in China has brought about problems such as rural "hollowing out",agricultural "hollowing out" and rural brain drain.At the same time,the rural labor force "flowing but not staying",the employment discrimination of migrant workers and the difficulty of social integration have also deepened the urban poverty problem.Based on the above-mentioned realities,this paper incorporates labor mobility,urban poverty and rural poverty into a unified analytical framework,focusing on the impact of labor mobility on urban and rural two-dimensional poverty,and on this basis,studies the impact of this impact in the time dimension and space dimensional heterogeneity strives to contribute to the rational flow of labor and poverty reduction in urban and rural areas in our country.At the theoretical research level,this paper studies the internal mechanism of labor mobility affecting urban and rural poverty,and finds that:(1)In terms of rural poverty,labor mobility may reduce the degree of rural poverty through poverty outflow effect,income transfer effect,and agricultural income increase effect.It is also possible that due to the loss of human capital,shrinking agricultural production,and the absence of family and companionship,rural poverty may deepen.(2)In terms of urban poverty,labor mobility may not only reduce the degree of urban poverty through local market effects,population agglomeration effects,and economic growth effects,etc.;urban poverty deepen.(3)In addition,factors such as the spatial transfer of the poor,the spatial diffusion of urbanization,the spatial spillover of information technology,and the spatial sharing of income have spatial spillover effects on urban and rural poverty in surrounding areas.This concludes that the impact of labor mobility on urban and rural poverty is heterogeneous and uncertain.In terms of empirical research,the research of this paper is embodied in two levels: characteristic fact research and quantitative empirical research:(1)At the characteristic fact research level,this paper makes a two-dimensional dynamic characteristic fact analysis of labor mobility and poverty in our country.The research findings: First,in the time dimension,the evolution of labor mobility and poverty in China is divided into five stages,in which labor mobility has experienced a dynamic evolution from "Restriction-Probing-Releasing-Influx-Stabilization".Second,in the spatial dimension,our country’s population flow has experienced dynamic spatial structural changes such as "coastal agglomeration to inland diffusion" and "line agglomeration transforms into surface agglomeration".(2)At the level of quantitative empirical research,this paper constructs a spatial Durbin model to study the impact of labor mobility on urban and rural poverty and spatial spillover effects in 31 provinces in my country from 2000 to 2019,and divides it into stages to study its stage heterogeneity.The research finds: First,overall,labor mobility can reduce urban poverty and rural poverty,but the impact is heterogeneous between urban and rural areas.The higher the labor inflow rate,the lower the urban poverty and rural poverty in the region,and the greater the poverty reduction effect in rural areas.Second,the impact of labor mobility on urban and rural poverty has a spatial spillover effect,and there is heterogeneity between urban and rural areas.The higher the labor inflow rate in a region,the lower the urban poverty level in its surrounding areas,but it may deepen the rural poverty level in the surrounding areas.Third,the research on the division of stages found that the impact of labor mobility on urban poverty in the region was the same in the two stages,but the impact on rural poverty changed from slowing down to exacerbating,indicating that the second stage of labor mobility led to factors such as the loss of rural human capital and the shrinking of agricultural production may lead to a deepening of rural poverty.Fourth,the level of infrastructure,education expenditure,social security and employment expenditure also have a certain contribution to urban and rural poverty reduction,and have a spatial spillover effect.In terms of policy research,this paper draws the following policy recommendations based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical research:(1)In the future poverty governance,urban poverty and rural poverty should be raised to the same height.(2)Strengthen the dynamic monitoring,intelligent service and humanized management of the floating population between the outflow and inflow places,so that the labor force can flow reasonably between urban and rural areas and between regions.(3)Strengthen the construction of inter-regional transportation infrastructure,and strengthen the connection of economy,talents and resources between urban and rural areas and between regions.(4)Expand basic education expenditures and talent training expenditures to achieve an organic transition from demographic dividends to talent dividends.