| The Chinese Men’s Professional Basketball League is the top basketball tournament in China,and the CBA playoffs are an important test to judge the technical level of the top teams in China.The study uses literature method,video observation method,mathematical statistics method,and comparative analysis method to study and analyze the technical indexes of twelve teams that entered the CBA playoffs.The study mainly applied binary logistic regression analysis,taking the332 games won and lost by the twelve teams entering the CBA playoffs in the2020-2021 season as the dependent variables,with winning as 1 and losing as 0.Using the technical indicators as the independent variables,the overall technical indicator winning factor judgment model and the technical indicator winning factor judgment model of each team were constructed based on the obtained data.The model was constructed based on the data obtained.According to the model operation,the overall technical index winning factors of CBA season and the technical index winning factors of each team are analyzed,and each team is classified according to the technical index winning factors of each team.Thus,we can grasp the technical styles and winning patterns of each team that entered the playoffs in the current CBA.The study helps to reflect the overall technical level level of domestic basketball teams in order to provide some reference for the training and competition of China’s subsequent basketball teams,and also hopes to provide some insights for the future development of China’s men’s basketball team.The results of the study are as follows.(1)In the field of competitive sports,binary logistic regression can be used to calculate the impact of each independent variable on the game outcome by using both the win and loss of the game as dependent variables.The application in the field of competitive basketball is mainly to analyze the probability of winning a game under the influence of specific independent variables and the magnitude of these specific independent variable influences.(2)The study focuses on constructing a binary logistic regression model of overall season technical indicators and a regression model of technical indicator winning factors for twelve teams.The model was characterized as follows: 1.The dependent variable of the model is the win or loss of the game,where win is 1 and loss is 0;the independent variables of the model are the technical indicator winning factors of each participating team.(3)The overall winning factors of the twelve teams that entered the CBA playoffs in the 2020-2021 season were calculated from the model as three-point field goal percentage,free throw scoring rate,two-point field goal percentage,steal efficiency,and front court rebounding efficiency in a total of 332 games in that season.Based on the results of the model,the twelve teams were divided into three major categories: the first category is the category of winning and losing depending on the combination of defensive efficiency and offensive efficiency,and the representative teams are: Jilin,Sichuan,Guangdong,Guangzhou;the second category is the category of winning and losing depending on rebounding efficiency,and the representative teams are: Beijing,Qingdao,Liaoning,Zhejiang;the third category is the composite category of winning and losing depending on the combination of three technical indicators,and the representative teams are: Guangsha,Xinjiang,Shenzhen,Shandong.Xinjiang,Shenzhen,Shandong.(4)Based on the binary logistic regression analysis,the case analysis of CBA2020-2021 season finals concluded that:(i)in the incoming end,Liaoning’s 2-point shooting rate and 3-point shooting rate are better than Guangdong’s in terms of data;Guangdong’s assist rate,free throw shooting rate and frontcourt rebounding efficiency are better than Liaoning’s;in the assist-to-turnover ratio the two teams are equal;(ii)in the defensive end,Guangdong’s On the defensive end,Guangdong’s stealing efficiency and backcourt rebounding efficiency are better than Liaoning’s.(5)By testing the regression model of Guangdong team,it is concluded that in the new season,the opponent,game environment,team members and other factors will change,and the team will make certain technical adjustments according to the reality,so in the new season,different technical indicators will be included in the model as the winning factors,and the winning factors will change to some extent,but in the two seasons before and after,the winning factors that have more influence on the game The winning factors will change,but the winning factors that have a greater impact on the game will not change significantly between the two seasons.The following prerequisites are recommended to be met when building the model:(i)the dependent variable is dichotomous;(ii)there is at least one independent variable;(iii)each sample is independent of each other;and(iv)there is no covariance among the independent variables. |
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