Research On Food Supply Security And Safeguard Measures Regarding China’s Main Grain Producing Areas Under The Background Of Rural Population Aging

Food supply security is an important foundation for building China’s food security and a top priority for achieving long-term stability in China’s agricultural modernization.However,nowadays,the phenomenon of rural population aging is relatively serious.In 2020,the results of the seventh national population census showed that compared with 2010,the proportion of the population aged 60 and above increased by 5.44 percentage points.With the deepening of the aging of the rural population in China,a large number of young and middle-aged labor force flows into cities and towns,as well as a large number of agricultural labor force flows into non agricultural industries,which will inevitably have a huge impact on China’s food supply security.However,the pattern of China’s "major grain producing provinces,economically weak provinces,and financially poor provinces" has not fundamentally changed.They are still facing issues such as uneven distribution of interests among regions,inadequate land scale management,and other issues.Moreover,due to the transfer of major grain producing regions to the north,land quality has deteriorated,and ecological environmental pressures continue to increase,leading to increasingly prominent regional conflicts.With the rapid development of agricultural production in China,agricultural production in China is facing increasingly severe socio-economic situations,and agricultural production is facing increasingly severe socio-economic situations,while agricultural production is facing severe challenges.Therefore,this article takes the aging of the rural population as the background,starting from the main grain producing areas in China,to explore the influencing factors and security measures for food supply security,in order to achieve food production and efficiency increase in China,and ensure food supply security in the main grain producing areas.This article will be based on agricultural industry development theory,grain production theory,agricultural moderate scale management theory,and sustainable development theory.To provide theoretical support for exploring the influencing factors and security measures of food supply security in China’s main grain producing areas against the background of rural population aging.Firstly,the mechanism analysis is conducted from both direct and indirect aspects,with direct effects: labor supply effect and scale effect of human capital.Indirect effects: capital factor substitution effects and land use effects.Secondly,using the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2020 in China,an evaluation index system for food supply security was constructed,which included 4 first level indicators and 11 second level indicators.The entropy method was used to calculate and obtain the comprehensive index value.On this basis,empirical analysis was conducted: First,a mixed model was adopted The fixed effect model and random effect model are used to conduct benchmark regression on the influencing factors of food supply security in the context of rural population aging,and sample regression is selected for robustness testing;The research results show that under the background of rural population aging,the impact of food supply security in China is significantly negative,and the natural population growth rate is-0.0138,threatening food supply security.The main driving force for ensuring food supply security is the grain sown area and direct food subsidy policies.Step 2: Through cross term regression analysis,the regression results preliminarily confirm that the level of agricultural mechanization,per capita cultivated land area,and rural human capital are all important factors affecting China’s food supply security,and they all alleviate the negative effects of food supply security,and provide a basis for the following safeguard measures.The third step is to divide the northern and southern regions and conduct a benchmark regression and mechanism testing heterogeneity analysis: the impact of aging rate,per capita cultivated land area,and rural human capital in the northern region is greater than that in the southern region.Then,targeted security measures are proposed: comprehensively improving the strategic regulatory capacity of grain,and improving the construction of agricultural machinery and facilities according to local conditions.Finally,the conclusion is summarized,and research prospects are conducted in three aspects: data acquisition,action path,and food supply security at the prefecture level and city level.