Research On Investment Decision Of Pension Real Estate PPP Project From The Perspective Of Fuzzy Real Option

With the acceleration of the aging process,our country is faced with severe population ageing challenges.However,our country’s old-age service system is relatively weak,and it is difficult to meet the current demand for old-age care.The contradiction between supply and demand for old-age care needs to be solved urgently.The application of PPP model in the field of endowment real estate,on the one hand,helps to reduce the government’s financial pressure,on the other hand,the introduction of social capital can also improve the quality of endowment service.However,in the development of PPP project of endowment real estate,because of the risk of many uncertain factors,high investment cost and long capital recovery period,the evaluation of project value often does not accord with the actual situation,the investment decision-making is prone to big deviation.In the stage of investment decision-making,the traditional net present value(NPV)method is often used in PPP projects of endowment real estate,this method ignores the hidden value,that is,the option value,brought by the uncertain factors in the project investment decision-making,the construction management process and the investors’ flexible decision-making.As a result,investment decisions often do not match up with reality.Therefore,the scientific investment decision-making method has the extremely vital practical significance to the enhancement investor’s decision-making scientificity and the endowment real estate PPP project implementation validity.This paper discusses the application of fuzzy real option method in the value evaluation of PPP project of endowment real estate.First of all,this paper combs the research status quo of previous scholars in related fields,introduces the development of our country’s endowment real estate industry,and then analyzes the traditional investment decision-making evaluation system of PPP project and its limitations.Secondly,based on the theory of real option,this paper analyzes the real option characteristics of PPP project,and introduces three real option pricing methods and their applicability.The comparison with the traditional NPV method shows the advantage of real option.Then,based on the related concepts of fuzzy number,the paper expounds the fuzzy characteristics of PPP project of endowment real estate,and chooses trapezoidal fuzzy number and real option to combine application.Then,we establish and modify the B-S option pricing model of PPP project for the aged real estate,and then derive the investment decision-making model of PPP project for the aged real estate under the condition of fuzzy real options.Finally,the traditional investment decision-making method,B-S option pricing model and fuzzy real option pricing model are used to quantitatively study the investment decision-making of actual cases.Through the analysis and comparison of the three calculation results,it is proved that the application of fuzzy real option is more advantageous in the investment decision-making of PPP project for the aged,which makes the investment decision-making accord with the changeable investment environment.