Research On The Heterogeneity Of Multiple On Maternal Income Based On Generalized Random Forests

At present,the size and structure of China’s population are constantly changing,and the population issue is an overall and strategic issue that China has been facing for a long time,and it has always been a hot issue of concern to the party and the state.In order to alleviate the aging of the population and increase the fertility rate,China has gradually relaxed the family planning policy.However,according to the existing surveys,women are less responsive to fertility policies,because the increase in the number of children may have a great impact on women’s work income,that is,there is the motherhood penalty.The negative effects of fertility on different women are also different,i.e.there is heterogeneity.According to the fertility data survey,China’s one-child fertility rate tends to be stable,and there is still a lot of room for improvement in the multiple-child fertility rate.Therefore,it is important to explore the punishment of fertility income for mothers by having multiple children.The fertility status and labor market performance of women in China are reviewed and analyzed,and the generalized random forest algorithm is used to analyze the 2020 Chinese Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data to study the motherhood penalty of mothers for having multiple children,and to analyze their heterogeneity treatment effects under different characteristics.Using machine learning to estimate processing effects can improve the accuracy of estimation,and the generalized random forest algorithm is currently the forefront of machine learning in causal inference.Through the analysis of the current situation,it is found that the total fertility rate of women in China and the fertility rate of women of childbearing age are relatively low;Although the labor force participation rate of women in China is relatively high,the labor income of women is much lower than that of men,and the employment rate of women in the tertiary industry is much lower than that of developed countries and most developing countries.Empirical analysis has found that having multiple children reduces maternal income by an average of 23%,and that mothers with higher household net worth,lower intellectual levels,older births of their first child,and smaller families have lower incomes.Based on the above empirical conclusions,it is proposed to formulate subsidy policies for multiple births such as economic subsidies and extended maternity leave,establish and improve the women’s skills training mechanism,and improve the childcare system to increase the labor participation rate and labor income of mothers.These measures can increase fertility while reducing the motherhood wage penalty for multiple births to mothers.