| After Shinzo Abe came to power for the second time,he actively promoted the revision of the pacifist constitution,lifted the ban on the right to collective self-defense,and abandoned the post-war system of "exclusive defense".The characteristics of strategic transformation with Abe’s color.With the official opening of the "post-Abe era" in Japanese politics,Japan’s security policy has continued to deepen economic security,alliance systems,and security cooperation on the basis of following the "Abe philosophy" advocated by constitutional revision.The China-related direction of the security policy has shown a phased adjustment.Attribution theory is an important theory in the field of social psychology,which aims to explain and predict people’s behavior more accurately by combining factors such as situations and attributes.The introduction of attribution theory in the field of international relations has played a positive role in clarifying the mechanism of miscognition among countries and explaining state behavior and decision-making.With the development of the attribution theory paradigm in international relations,attribution analysis begins to pay attention to the influence of group dynamics on actor attribution,and its explanatory framework for state behavior is divided into situational,internal and external dimensions.Together,these dimensions reflect the uncertainty in international relations and form a cognitive model of “system effects”that analyzes the motivations of national decision-making.Combining the cognitive elements of attribution theory and analyzing its cognitive logic,we can accurately and effectively understand the adjustment process of Japan’s security policy trends in the "post-Abe era".In the post-Abe era,Japan’s security policy has shown a trend of highlighting continuity and inheritance,integrating economic and security demands,and constructing a multi-level cooperation system on the three main lines of security system,economic security,and defense alliance.It is realistic,Features of comprehensiveness and flexibility.The release of the "Three New Security Documents" marks a huge change in Japan’s postwar national security policy,and the cooperation between economic security and the "Indo-Pacific" security alliance has been implemented in the adjustment process of Japan’s security policy in the post-Abe era.Under the influence of uncertainty,Japan’s security perception preferences have also evolved.Based on cognitive analysis based on the elements of attribution theory,Japan defines the current security situation as a competition-based situation.The internal factor system feedback mode of "intention-capability","capability-interest" and "determination-other" is the core driving force of Japan’s security decision-making.The flexibility of Japan’s security policy in the post-Abe era stems from decisions based on real politics.Pragmatic adjustments,while the interaction logic among internal cognitive elements facilitates and amplifies its initiative and comprehensive trends.Japan’s macro-cognition of the outside world magnifies Japan’s perception of the capabilities and interests of other countries.Micro-cognition makes Japan fall into the dilemma of dislocation of intention cognition and signal selection.Special cognition makes Japan downplay the situational constraints faced by other countries.Under the systematic effect of internal and external factors,the adjustment logic of Japan’s security policy in the post-Abe era was finally formed.In this regard,China should proceed from the logic of attribution cognition to achieve mutual strategic assurance(reassure program)and build a risk prevention mechanism to eliminate the constraints of uncertainty in the Sino-Japanese security relationship,avoid Japan’s malicious tendency in cognition of China’s strategic intentions,and express it with signals.The positive joint force of the mechanism and the signal screening mechanism promotes the implementation of systematic strategic appeasement;on the other hand,the comprehensive security strategy from the perspective of security demand side responds to military security threats from Japan’s security trends,and flexibly uses political,military,economic,diplomatic,etc.Multiple means should be used to deal with the risks at the level of capabilities and interests brought about by the new trend of Japan’s security policy,and finally build a Sino-Japan relationship that meets the requirements of the new era. |
