Research On The Hybrid Theory Model Of Criminal Evidence Reasoning

Using evidence to discover and deduce case facts is an important part of criminal justice proof research.Since criminal cases all happened in the past,investigators cannot directly perceive them.They can only restore the original appearance to the greatest extent by collecting,organizing and analyzing existing evidence,and this restoration process is also the reasoning process of evidence.It seems that a set of universally applicable fact-finding methods has been concluded in judicial practice in my country.Some scholars have named it the "verified model",which can be used to solve the judicial problem of fact-finding based on indirect evidence.However,this model is still quite controversial,because in the context of frequent wrongful cases,the confirmation model is not enough to deal with the current complex and changeable case forms,and a more effective and coherent solution needs to be explored.In order to enrich and improve the judicial proof method in our country,it is particularly important to use the existing evidence reasoning methods reasonably.At present,there are three mainstream methods of evidential reasoning: argument method,probability method and story method.Argumentation methods rely on logical reasoning to construct facts through a series of successive reasoning steps.Argumentation method is a typical atomistic evidence analysis method,which focuses on the support or contradiction of evidence to the hypothesis,and the attack and support between arguments,so as to realize the test of the whole chain of evidence reasoning.Probabilistic methods use probability and statistics to calculate the possibility of a hypothesis being true by assigning values to events.Bayes’ theorem is an important formula for calculation.Stories are an important means of communication in people’s daily life,and in the process of evidence analysis and reasoning,stories can also allow people to quickly understand the facts of a case.The story method constructs different versions of the story through a causal chain from the perspective of holism,and realizes a reasonable interpretation of the existing evidence materials.The story method helps fact-finders construct hypotheses about what really happened amidst a multitude of evidence.The three methods have advantages in their respective areas of expertise,but also have their own limitations.Evidence reasoning method should be a comprehensive,holistic and logical comprehensive analysis method.In view of this,some scholars propose to combine the story method with the argument method to construct a hybrid model of evidence inference.On the premise of retaining the characteristics and advantages of the two methods of evidence-based reasoning,make up for their respective limitations and promote the connection between evidence,arguments and stories.This paper attempts to introduce how this mixed-evidential reasoning model assists fact-finders in their evidence-based reasoning.The article will elaborate on the feasibility of using the two approaches for hybrid theory construction,explain how arguments support and contradict stories,and how stories enhance arguments,and combine the goodness criteria in best-explained reasoning to reason about hybrid models.The conclusion is checked.Evidence reasoning method should be a comprehensive,holistic and logical comprehensive analysis method.In view of this,some scholars propose to combine the story method with the argument method to construct a hybrid model of evidence inference.On the premise of retaining the characteristics and advantages of the two methods of evidence-based reasoning,make up for their respective limitations and promote the connection between evidence,arguments and stories.This paper attempts to introduce how this mixed-evidential reasoning model assists fact-finders in their evidence-based reasoning.The article will elaborate on the feasibility of using the two approaches for hybrid theory construction,explain how arguments support and contradict stories,and how stories enhance arguments,and combine the goodness criteria in IBE to evaluate hybrid models.This article will cover the following topics:The first chapter summarizes the theory of judicial proof.The first section sorts out the historical evolution of judicial proof theory and the connotation of evidence reasoning.The second section introduces the fact-finding model commonly used in judicial practice in our country and the shortcomings of this model.The second chapter introduces the theoretical basis of three existing mainstream evidence reasoning methods,namely,the method of argument,the method of probability and the method of story.Taking a robbery case as an example,this paper analyzes the applicable paths of the three reasoning methods,and expounds their respective advantages and disadvantages.The first section introduces the method of argumentation.On the one hand,it expounds the application of Wigmore Schema and the improved Wigmore Schema developed on this basis.On the other hand,it introduces the computational path for artificial intelligence,how to use information technology means to achieve automatic legal reasoning to assist legal practice.The second section introduces the probability method,which mainly focuses on the calculation method of the Bayesian probability model,and takes into account the construction of the Bayesian networks(BNs).The third section introduces the research path of the story method,and expounds the practical application of the story model and anchored narrative theory respectively.The third chapter is the innovative part of this article,which mainly introduces the construction process of the mixed evidence reasoning mode.The first section analyzes the compatibility of the story method and the demonstration method,clarifies the feasibility of the hybrid theory in the judicial context of our country,and elaborates the demonstration path of the hybrid mode.The second section evaluates the conclusion of the hybrid theory based on the evaluation criteria of the "best explanation" in IBE.The fourth chapter is to construct the formal logic model of the hybrid mode.The first section expounds the important achievements of scholars in the field of artificial intelligence and law to build a structured debate system.The second section defines the formal logic model of hybrid theory,and specifically introduces how to construct the formal logic of supporting or attacking argument paths between arguments and the coherence requirements of stories in hybrid models.The fifth chapter combines the case of Chen Yajun and uses the hybrid theory to analyze the case,so as to test the operability of the hybrid theory of evidence reasoning in judicial practice.