Research On The Debt Risk Of Local Government Investment In Chin

Urban investment bond is a kind of credit bond.As a special credit bond,its debt repayment is not only related to the operation of the urban investment platform,but also closely related to the repayment ability and willingness of the government behind it.Since the default of a regional urban investment platform will affect the evaluation of market investors on other platforms in the region,the debt repayment willingness of regional governments tends to be 100%.In this case,the solvency of the local government has become an important factor affecting bond risk.Because the financial risk is often the corruption risk,the investigation of the government’s solvency can be traced back to the investigation of the debt management ability of the main local officials.Mainly due to local government officials to master resource scheduling more power in the region,economic decisions directly affect the economic development and economy of the region,in order to avoid the personal interest and public interest,the conflict between regional interests and national interests,and operational efficiency,our country has formed the distinctive regional official withdrawal system,but there are still some provinces for local conditions,Therefore,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the debt risks of urban investment banks in each province from the perspective of whether the main local government officials are local or not.Based on existing studies,it is known that the local appointment of major local government officials will increase the risk of corruption,and some scholars believe that corruption will have a negative impact on the efficiency of resource allocation and economic development,but some scholars still believe that corruption will promote economic development.Through these two aspects of research,this paper combs out the positive and negative impacts of local government officials’ local positions on the default risk of urban investment bond market,and carries out an empirical test.The results show that after controlling economic,financial,debt,liquidity and other variables,the local appointment of local government officials will significantly increase the credit spread in the secondary market of the region,that is,increase the credit risk in the urban investment bond market.After calculating the default distance of each provincial investment bank debt by using KMV model,the credit risk index is reconstructed by using default distance to ensure the robustness of the research conclusion.Regression showed that the results calculated by using the KMV risk measure method were consistent with the benchmark model,indicating that the research conclusions were robust.Due to the different debt repayment pressures in the eastern and western regions(Fan Desheng,Shao Xingyu,Luo Yingdan,2022),this paper conducts a heterogeneity analysis when studying the impact of the local office of major local government officials on credit risk.Investigate the influence of local government officials in different regions on credit risk.The results show that the positive impact of the local appointment of major local government officials on credit spreads in the eastern region is much smaller than that in the western region.Then,this paper makes a concrete analysis of the influence channels of the local government officials’ appointment on credit risk,and finds that the local government officials’ appointment will have a negative impact on the economic vitality of the region,and then increase the credit risk of the region.Finally,based on the perspective of local government principal officials serving locally,this paper puts forward some suggestions on the research results of urban investment bank debt risk,that is,to reduce the ratio of local government principal officials serving locally,and to take regional avoidance as much as possible to reduce the probability of corruption.And mainly by local government officials of local impact on credit risk channel,this paper suggested that the local government should pay attention to the development of the economy,improve the economic strength,the reasonable debt,debt control at both can promote economic development by leverage and won’t take on too big debt pressure area in the bond market under the condition of credit,and pay attention to the financial development of the local,Provide short-term financing and refinancing support for the bond issuing platform,improve the local industrial development and upgrading transformation,form its own regional industrial advantages,and reduce the risk default expectation of urban investment bond market.