Research On The Impact Of Transfer Payment On The Basic Public Service Supply

Increasing the supply of public goods and narrowing the gap of residents’ welfare is the only way to achieve common prosperity.The ultimate goal is to realize that all citizens can actually enjoy basic public services to fully meet their respective demands.Transfer payment funds can effectively make up the financial gap between regions,provide financial guarantee for the basic public service supply,and is an important driving force to improve the supply level.However,there are differences in the demographic structure and the population floating among regions,whether the current transfer payment system can improve the basic public service supply in the sense of interpersonal equality remains to be studied.Based on the provincial panel data from 2006 to 2020,this thesis explores the impact of transfer payment on the basic public service supply adjusted by demographic characteristics from two aspects:scale and structure,through theoretical modeling,data calculation and empirical test,and makes threshold mechanism test of local financial self-sufficiency and heterogeneity analysis of demographic characteristics.Firstly,on the basis of combing the related literature of basic public service supply,demographic characteristics and transfer payment,it points out the influence of demographic characteristics on the basic public service supply considering the supply and demand side of basic public services;from the angles of central allocation and local distribution,this thesis explores the impact and mechanism of transfer payment on basic public service supply from perspective of demographic characteristics through theoretical modeling and mathematical deduction.Secondly,adjust the supply level of basic public services on the basis of demographic structure and the population floating.The calculation results show that there are significant differences in adjusted supply levels among provinces and cities,and the gap between supply adjusted before and after is also inter-provincial heterogeneity;there are differences in the adjusted supply level corresponding to the demographic characteristics of different types.,and the influence of population floating far exceeds demographic structure,and it is in a dominant position.Thirdly,using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020,a bidirectional fixed effect model and panel threshold model are established to test the impact mechanism of transfer payment on the basic public service supply adjusted by demographic characteristics.The empirical results show that:before and after the demographic characteristics were brought into the public service system,the guarantee effect of the current transfer payment on basic public services changed from promoting to inhibiting;the effect of various transfer payment on the adjusted supply level is heterogeneous,and only general transfer payment is conducive to improving basic public service capacity;there is a double threshold effect of transfer payment on the adjusted supply,and the inhibitory effect can gradually decrease with the increase of financial self-sufficiency rate;in heterogeneity analysis,considering the different degree of population floating in different regions,the role of transfer payment on supply is more sensitive.For areas with high demand for public services based on demographic classification and population outflow areas,transfer payment is beneficial to improve the supply level,while for areas with low demand for public services based on demographic classification and population inflow areas,transfer payment inhibits the basic public service supply.Finally,summarize the research conclusions,and some policy suggestions are given on how to improve the transfer payment system with the goal of the basic public service supply and the basis of demographic characteristic.